A 1-stage furnace, properly sized, will run continuously at design temperature. In other words, if the design temperature is +5*, then when the outdoor temperature gets down to +5*, the furnace is maintaining the indoor design temperature but never shutting off. If the OAT goes down to +4*, the indoor temp. drops 1* but the furnace is still running.
Now when the OAT is 10*, the furnace is actually 'oversized' for the existing conditions, meaning it's delivering more Btu's/hour than the house needs. So if on a +5* OAT day the house needs 60,000 Btu's of heat every hour and as we've stated that's the output from the furnace. When the OAT is +10*, the furnace is still delivering 60,000 Btu's/hour but the house only needs 50,000 Btu's per hour. Thus, the furnace must turn off for some period of time so that it only puts a total of 50,000 Btu's into the home each hour to prevent over heating or over shooting the t-stat set point. This is the reason a 2-stage furnace is more comfortable. In reality, because the 1st stage heat is significantly smaller than the home needs in very cold weather, it's like having 2-deisgn temperatures. As the OAT gets closer to the warmer of the 2-deisgn temps, the furnace runs longer and longer cycles until, just like the +5* example above, the 1st stage is running constantly and any lower temperature will begin to cycle the 2nd stage heat on and off. As it gets colder and colder, the 2nd stage will be on longer and longer, the 1st stage will be on constantly until the OAT gets down to +5* in our example, then 2nd stage is on constantly, just like the 1-stage furnace.