Over Supply of Solar Panels?

[JackCrane]

With the craze of solar energy models being implemented in major construction projects, do you think this will lead to a huge surplus in solar panels? Each day on the road, I see solar energy trucks that I have never seen before like the storm chasers you see after a hurricane. I am curious if anyone else is noticing the over saturation of solar companies. I predict these systems will start to drop in price so I am not complaining!

-Jack

[shaungenghis]

1st post for me but: Yes and Yes. This is an old post I realize and happened before SolarCity bankruptcy but it still seems there are a lot of panels available for sale out there and still a lot of installers out there. They are not cheap to me though.

[JimMac]

I think Chinese manufacturers are flooding many markets with excess production...had a hard landing in GDP revisions last year, and there's a lot of scrambling to liquidate stuff & show cashflow to appease the banks.

[jackfowler]

Solar panel growth could lead to a cut back in feed-in tarrifs due to oversupply issues during low demand periods reports The Guardian.

[DannyPhilips]

It seems to me that this is a normal trend - it is inevitable that solar panels will enter our lives more and more!

[leLemur]

That's a good thing. Was browsing for one in my local area and I was surprised how much it dropped from 5 years ago

[ehsx]

I might consider the dual purpose solar panels if by a US mfg. Looks like >90% are chinese made.

[justnvm]

It is inevitable that solar panels will enter our lives more and more!

[Pietro8]

In my area, more and more rooftops are being "covered" with solar panels - this allows us to be more autonomous.

[Poodle Head Mikey]

It amazes me to think of the apparent philosophy underpinning Solar Panel Logic. Maybe 'amuses' is a better word. <g>

The goal is to reduce energy costs. One would project that this would be logically and best accomplished by passive reductions in the need for energy. LED lighting is a decent example - the same amount of light is produced but less energy is used.

Whereas; "solar panel logic" is apparently aimed at being able to waste the same amount of energy as always, or even more - just at a lower cost. <g>

Solar reflective roofing, insulation of all sorts, and weather sealing would all pay far greater dividends and at lower cost - and all of them have longer and low maintenance lives. But . . . they lack the glam and panache' of Solar Electric so you don't see so much hype for them. <g>

PHM
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With the craze of solar energy models being implemented in major construction projects, do you think this will lead to a huge surplus in solar panels? Each day on the road, I see solar energy trucks that I have never seen before like the storm chasers you see after a hurricane. I am curious if anyone else is noticing the over saturation of solar companies. I predict these systems will start to drop in price so I am not complaining!

-Jack

[BNME8EZ]

It amazes me to think of the apparent philosophy underpinning Solar Panel Logic. Maybe 'amuses' is a better word. <g>

The goal is to reduce energy costs. One would project that this would be logically and best accomplished by passive reductions in the need for energy. LED lighting is a decent example - the same amount of light is produced but less energy is used.

Whereas; "solar panel logic" is apparently aimed at being able to waste the same amount of energy as always, or even more - just at a lower cost. <g>

Solar reflective roofing, insulation of all sorts, and weather sealing would all pay far greater dividends and at lower cost - and all of them have longer and low maintenance lives. But . . . they lack the glam and panache' of Solar Electric so you don't see so much hype for them. <g>

PHM
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Yeah, I did the math on my exterior lighting, over $5k for the system with at todays rates less than $5 a months savings based on a 10 hour run time. It wouldn't pay for itself in 2 PV system lifetimes even if you got the second one free.

[rexp]

"Total cost" is seldom considered, so we don't include the energy cost of manufacture of the panels, nor the disposal costs. Landfills are generally the final resting place...

[Rebecca CN]

In China, there was a boom in solar subsidies before 2018, and a large amount of capital entered this field. In the past, the technology of silicon raw material refining was mastered by Europe and Japan, and now China's technology has taken the lead. Take Xiamen, where I live, for example, there are countless solar manufacturers, and I have more than a dozen friends who are engaged in the export of the photovoltaic industry.
However, after 2018, the subsidy policy was cancelled and the market boom declined, but the promotion of new energy and environmental protection still stimulates its development.
At present, there is indeed an oversupply of photovoltaic production capacity.

[Moev Energy]

In my area, more and more rooftops are being "covered" with solar panels - this allows us to be more autonomous.

We provide 10 years warranty on our solar system setup. Moevenergy is the best solar panel installer in Sydney area.

[BNME8EZ]

I put 4 hot water panels on my roof last November. I haven’t gotten 1 btu of heat out of them yet. When I got the piping connected between the panels and pump pack I pressure tested with air and had leaks. One was a stupid one. I silver soldered everything in the attic for less chance of leaks from expansion/contraction and somehow blew a hole in the bend of the elbow. After that I still had leaks but less and couldn’t find them inside and it was too cold to look outside. I finally got a day in March above 50 so I pressure tested with water. I found a compression fitting that didn’t get tightened then I found where 2 panels were leaking. I contacted the company and they will not do anything. They say I put water in the panels in freezing weather and they froze and broke. They won’t even give me a breakdown of how they come apart. Worst company I have ever dealt with.

[Poodle Head Mikey]

If it were me I would immediately pipe up the two tested-good panels by bypassing the leakers. Start the system and let it fly. Then you've at 50%.

A man built those panels - so another man can get them apart. And look at the bright side: no warranty concerns to stress over. <g>

What size panels are they? Each.

What size and type of storage do you have?

PHM
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.

I put 4 hot water panels on my roof last November. I haven’t gotten 1 btu of heat out of them yet. When I got the piping connected between the panels and pump pack I pressure tested with air and had leaks. One was a stupid one. I silver soldered everything in the attic for less chance of leaks from expansion/contraction and somehow blew a hole in the bend of the elbow. After that I still had leaks but less and couldn’t find them inside and it was too cold to look outside. I finally got a day in March above 50 so I pressure tested with water. I found a compression fitting that didn’t get tightened then I found where 2 panels were leaking. I contacted the company and they will not do anything. They say I put water in the panels in freezing weather and they froze and broke. They won’t even give me a breakdown of how they come apart. Worst company I have ever dealt with.

[BNME8EZ]

Panels are classed as 4x6. I have 2 tanks with the water coil built into them. I forget now but total is either 100 or 120 gallon.

I really don’t see using the storage much in the heating season but will use it for domestic hot water in the summer. The bigger of the tanks is set up to be a preheat for the water heater. If it generates more hot water than I can use I can run the pump overnight and use the panels to reject heat into the night sky.

Winter it will be used for infloor heat. Once the floor in the shop gets warm enough to get it up to 40 water will transfer inside and heat the floor in the basement. When the panels cool below basement floor heat level it will go back to the shop floor.

I forget the numbers but as I remember the 4 panels will produce around 40k/ day best case.

[joanadavidson]

In almost all cases for almost all homes, yes, it's still worth it to switch to solar panels. That's a reflection of the fact the price of the actual panels has gone down and the capacity of the solar panels has gone up. So really it makes sense to put as many on your roof as you can afford.

[BNME8EZ]

In almost all cases for almost all homes, yes, it's still worth it to switch to solar panels. That's a reflection of the fact the price of the actual panels has gone down and the capacity of the solar panels has gone up. So really it makes sense to put as many on your roof as you can afford.

If they are so good they would pay for themselves and so they would be self supporting, IE pay for themselves in a reasonable time, so affording them should not be an issue.

[Poodle Head Mikey]

Joan Davidson,

Can you support that statement with actual cost/value derived numbers?

In Florida I have a duplex with a budget billing of $151.00 a month. Maybe 1800 square feet.

I have a single rancher about 1100 square feet that the tenant keeps calling me about (they don't live there in the summer) to complain that the AC must be broken because the electric bill is $35. (stat is set to 80º while they are not there).

I presently live in a somewhat larger rancher that I am not done 'thermally improving' and the electric bill is never over $125. per month.

I like to see >10% return on invested funds. For solar I would take 5%. For my own house now let's project that my annualized electric cost is $1200. - and further project that it could be reduced to zero via the installation of a PV solar system.

I don't know anything about what it costs to install PV solar but it would have to be $24,000. or less to make the grade. And that assumes a static principal - which solar, as a deprecating asset, does not provide. So if the solar system lasts 20 years - and never breaks or requires maintenance - I have twenty years to return my investment while having it produce a 5% return. So I would require roughly; 15%. Which means that the initial solar system can't cost more than $8000. and that the replacement cost can't be over $8000. 20 years from now.

Can you re-work my numbers to make it all anywhere close to workable?

I am absolutely Not trying to give you any kind of a hard time - on the contrary; I very much want to be convinced that my present judgment is flawed.

PHM
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In almost all cases for almost all homes, yes, it's still worth it to switch to solar panels. That's a reflection of the fact the price of the actual panels has gone down and the capacity of the solar panels has gone up. So really it makes sense to put as many on your roof as you can afford.