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  1. #1
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    Question How does Nat Gas wholesale pricing affect you?

    NG Trend

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NATGAS&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04784699078

    Dual Fuel Set-Ups

    1

    Do you believe that a decline in Nat. Gas wholesale price will eventually create less demand for heat pumps?

    2

    Will customers recognize that a change in Economic balance point should be evaluated?

    3

    ARE customers actually seeing an associated decline in RESIDENTIALl Nat Gas rates?

    LONG TERM RATES
    http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n3010us3m.htm
    Last edited by dan sw fl; 10-25-2009 at 11:27 AM. Reason: LONG TERM RATES
    Designer Dan
    It's Not Rocket Science, But It is SCIENCE with "Some Art". ___ ___ K EEP I T S IMPLE & S INCERE

    Define the Building Envelope and Perform a Detailed Load Calc: It's ALL About Windows and Make-up Air Requirements. Know Your Equipment Capabilities

  2. #2
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    1
    Do you believe that a decline in Nat. Gas wholesale price will eventually create less demand for heat pumps?

    I think any drop off in demand for HPs will be temporary especially as the economy picks up and if there is a move from oil to nat gas especially in the area of transportation fuel.
    2

    Will customers recognize that a change in Economic balance point should be evaluated?

    No.

    3

    ARE customers actually seeing an associated decline in RESIDENTIALl Nat Gas rates?

    My geographic area is served by Piedmont Natural Gas which is regulated by Public Service Commission. Our rates are too high compared to other SE locations. Prices go up fairly easily but are very stubborn and resistant to reductions. Thank goodness we have a large nuclear footprint foe electric generation compared to other areas of the country.

    Just my opinion.
    TD

  3. #3
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    1 I would be more worried about Cap and Trade killing coal generated electricity. Tons of natural gas peaking plants are idle now because of last years high NG prices. Just doesn't make economic sense for running them. Coal electricity goes away thanks to the vote in 2009 so the natural gas plants come back unless they let nuclear go. (yea right). So natural gas supply goes back down and price goes up. In return electricity goes up because we can't use coal anymore. Screwed both ways. So I would be more worried about cap and trade instead of NG prices.

    2 Probably not.

    3 I have seen a decline but I only use 6 therms a month from April to November. I still get billed $16 - $17 for all the service charges so it really hasn't gone down as my price is dominated by service charges until 3 - 4 months of winter. I am seriously considering dual fuel so I am not tied to one source and will evaluate my economic balance point. Now if I could just have them shut my NG down from April to November and I would save $144/ year. They probably would charge me $150 hookup each time they had to turn it back on. Last year I only spent $300 total during the 4 cold months but I also wasn't very comfortable. So out of $450 of total usage I paid $200 just in service charge! Getting close to 50%.

  4. #4
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    1. I think that depends on the predisposition of the installing company. Even in the PNW, we have installers who shy away from heat pumps and push the natural gas furnaces.


    2. I don't think most know what an economic balance point is. I've talked to a number of my neighbors with dual fuel setups and they seem to be afraid to make any changes with their setups. They go with the installers recommendations which is generally factory.


    3. Yes. Puget Sound Energy just reduced natural gas rates 22 cents a therm. I adjusted my economic balance point five degrees upward. However, it won't make hardly any difference. The HP will lock itself out at 25 degrees instead of 20 degrees.

  5. #5
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    Speaking of Balance Point, how did you arrive at 20 - 25 degrees? Is there a rule of thumb or a formula? I need to adjust my balance point (I had it set to zero because Nat Gas was much more expensive than Electricity in my area of Ohio), but now think the "optimum" is much higher than zero. FYI. 11 Seer HP, 68% Nat Gas furnace, 70 cent gas (right now) and 8.2 cent electricity. Any thoughts are appreciated. It sounds as if you know a little about setting balance points.

  6. #6
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    I was given a spreadsheet tailored to my equipment from a gentleman on this site about two years ago. I punched in my HP specs from the Trane book and the furnace specs, my cost per KWH and my cost per therm. It give me a nice chart of costs starting at 42 degrees and dropping down to 2 degrees.

    In talking to my neighbors with heat pumps and natural gas furnaces, my bills are the lowest.

  7. #7
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    Electricity for area is extremely cheap, however the Power Profiler tells me we are going to get hit really hard with CO emission "tax." Been hitting the local electric providers meetings trying to stay up to speed. Either way, I live in a very green market (not necessiarily saving energy dollars)...meaning Duel Fuel where available.

    Natural Gas has pretty much been stable, controled through State Dept of Utility for rate hikes and has actually gone down in price. Oil and Propane on the other hand seems to be tied to what extras the local companies want to add to their H2 they add to their fleet for that particular month. (Okay, consumer does have a venue to question rates, but most are not aware of that.)

  8. #8
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    Thread Starter

    Thumbs up On-line caclulator

    Quote Originally Posted by speedymonk View Post
    I was given a spreadsheet tailored to my equipment from a gentleman on this site about two years ago. I punched in my HP specs from the Trane book and the furnace specs, my cost per KWH and my cost per therm. It give me a nice chart of costs starting at 42 degrees and dropping down to 2 degrees.

    In talking to my neighbors with heat pumps and natural gas furnaces, my bills are the lowest.
    Speedy with a Common-Sense approach is always on top of the situation.


    Comparisons ought to be Simple.

    Assistant is here > .. http://www.warmair.com/html/fuel_cost_comparisons.htm
    Designer Dan
    It's Not Rocket Science, But It is SCIENCE with "Some Art". ___ ___ K EEP I T S IMPLE & S INCERE

    Define the Building Envelope and Perform a Detailed Load Calc: It's ALL About Windows and Make-up Air Requirements. Know Your Equipment Capabilities

  9. #9
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    Thanks for the help. I'll look for an online spreadsheet which will show cost curves.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by tigerdunes View Post
    1
    Do you believe that a decline in Nat. Gas wholesale price will eventually create less demand for heat pumps?

    I think any drop off in demand for HPs will be temporary especially as the economy picks up and if there is a move from oil to nat gas especially in the area of transportation fuel.

    tigerdunes, you are way off base with this statement. You really don't understand how nat gas and the transportation industry's fuel requirements are so incompatible!! Nat Gas must be sourced as LNG for use in transportation vehicles. Such a move by the transportation industry will take decades. Where is the incentive for oil companies to switch to LNG? How will the transportation industry move from oil to nat gas when there is no infrastructure? To do so will require truck stops that sell LNG, how many are there currently and how many are in the planning stage? NADA NADA NADA!!!! Where will these LNG truck stops get their product? How many LNG import terminals are there and how will they distribute their product to all the truck stops.

    Switching from oil to nat gas for the transportation industry will likely not happen in my lifetime!!

    2

    Will customers recognize that a change in Economic balance point should be evaluated?

    No.

    Some may with the information available at forums such as this, but it will be only the very few who do access this type of information.


    3

    ARE customers actually seeing an associated decline in RESIDENTIALl Nat Gas rates?

    My geographic area is served by Piedmont Natural Gas which is regulated by Public Service Commission. Our rates are too high compared to other SE locations. Prices go up fairly easily but are very stubborn and resistant to reductions. Thank goodness we have a large nuclear footprint foe electric generation compared to other areas of the country.

    Our rates here in Arkansas are set to go down this winter due to lower nat gas input costs over the last year. Long term, I would take the higher nat gas side of the trade.

    Just my opinion.




    Just my opinion.
    TD
    OK

  11. #11
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    In areas where natural gas is used to generate some/most of the electricity, a decline in NG prices should trigger a decline in electricity rates. In CA, PGE is issuing rebates for this reason. However, any long term decline in NG prices will probably force economic balance points upward, which will tend to reduce the cost-savings associated with heat pumps.

  12. #12
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    Thread Starter

    Thumbs up LNG Future

    Quote Originally Posted by chambery1 View Post
    OK
    LNG Terminals and Future

    http://www.lngfacts.org/LNG-Future/default.asp


    Actually, Production and distribution WITHIN U.S. is also needed.
    Development time is obviously significant.


    INFORMATION RESOURCE

    http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/oct09.pdf

    http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/


    2009- 2010

    http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/5ctab.pdf
    Last edited by dan sw fl; 10-26-2009 at 05:51 AM.
    Designer Dan
    It's Not Rocket Science, But It is SCIENCE with "Some Art". ___ ___ K EEP I T S IMPLE & S INCERE

    Define the Building Envelope and Perform a Detailed Load Calc: It's ALL About Windows and Make-up Air Requirements. Know Your Equipment Capabilities

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by dan sw fl View Post
    LNG Terminals and Future

    http://www.lngfacts.org/LNG-Future/default.asp


    Actually, Production and distribution WITHIN U.S. is also needed.
    Development time is obviously significant.
    I used to be involved in this industry and have many friends still in it.
    The current administration is totally against this industry (oil and gas).
    They WANT to prices to rise to make alternative energy more in line with prices.

    My friends are telling me there is NO incentive to risk big $$ to drill. The only drilling now is for known reserves and that is limited to holding on to current production rates. Most of the drilling and production equipment has been mothballed and cannibalized. If restrictions are eased and incentives are passed to increase production, it will take at least 10 years to get back to where we should be!

    What you are seeing now is Nat. gas prices follow oil prices. We were paying almost $4.00 per gallon over a year ago, then it dropped drastically!
    Have you brought gas for your vehicle lately??? Get ready.
    Life is too short, Behappy!
    TFMM

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