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  1. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by ga-hvac-tech View Post
    (Of course, it's been pretty clear over the years that you have no idea what a white paper even is in the first place.)
    I don't see myself as being superior, but GA, sorry, you DO NOT know what a white paper is. Fact. So let me try to explain it to you to clear up this incorrect notion you have, and maybe then also you will see the reason that I always tell people to read them instead of media science.

    First, I do not blame you for not knowing about them as usually if you are in the profession you don't learn about them until you are an undergraduate. In my case, I learned about them because I am a science hobbyist.

    In the same way I would not know as much as you about technical HVAC stuff. I'm not embarrassed by that. By the same token, I spend way more time with science than you. Nothing to be embarrassed about. Ok?

    Lets start with where those dang predictions actually come from. By and large those will come from reports that large science institutions make to either the UN, or their constituent governments. Folks like, say, MIT, The WHO, NASA, NOAA... those sorts of large institutions. Also they are then amplified, or made famous I guess you could say, by all the media outlets coming out with reports on the reports, and yes, in come cases, even echoing the dire predictions.

    But none of these reports are 'scientific white papers'.

    White papers are written by much smaller groups of researchers. Sometimes individuals. Think of it as those researchers trying to convince other ones that their work is valid and should be accepted by the scientific community at large.

    Once the white paper is submitted, the researchers are looking for more than validation. They are also asking for additional eyes on it to help weed out any procedural errors. As I mentioned various procedural matters are important to science because they help weed out human influence of the result. These must be strictly followed or the researcher will be either corrected or trashed by peer review.

    The next thing that a white paper must contain falsification parameters. In other words, to be considered valid, tests or experiments must have both a success possibility and a failure possibility. Without both of those, science cannot be considered valid. And indeed, this is yet another thing that peer review may say lacks validity.

    So, the only predictions usually found in a white paper are small and compartmentalized ones, like this.

    Here is my hypothesis. Here is the experiment I want to do with all the procedures. This is what I predict will happen if I'm right, but this, however, is what will happen if I'm wrong.

    So, as you can see, GA, white papers aren't exactly the place for dire predictions. One reason, of course, is the it is rather presumptive and foolish to make predictions in a white paper because no one knows if it will be accepted. True, by the time you read it you'll know it was accpeted or you wouldn't be reading it, bit no one can know that at the time the document was written.
    "Most people would sooner die than think; in fact, they do so." ― Bertrand Russell

  2. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidadavis View Post
    I am skeptical it will be as bad as predicted also... but I do not believe at all that it has to do with politics. I think it is good ol fashioned yellow journalism along with the human fascination with doomsday predictions.

    https://www.livescience.com/14179-do...pocalypse.html
    Yea, I tend to agree with spaceracer's math, it's probably closer to 1% mortality rate. Then again, the infectious rate seems astonishing.

    Per politics, all I am willing to commit is "room for doubt" at this time. It's not even limited to national crud, it's global.
    "You boys are really making this thing harder than it has to be". Me

    “They can’t do anything about it unless they start shooting people, and presumably they won’t do that.” Protester & confirmed idiot.

    "I am not here to rescue you, I am bringing you along for emergency rations" Quark.

    "This is me, I'm not at home. If you'd like to reach me, leave me alone." Sherl Crow

    I give free estimates [Wild Ass Guesses] over the phone.

  3. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by scrogdog View Post
    I don't see myself as being superior, but GA, sorry, you DO NOT know what a white paper is. Fact. So let me try to explain it to you to clear up this incorrect notion you have, and maybe then also you will see the reason that I always tell people to read them instead of media science.

    First, I do not blame you for not knowing about them as usually if you are in the profession you don't learn about them until you are an undergraduate. In my case, I learned about them because I am a science hobbyist.

    In the same way I would not know as much as you about technical HVAC stuff. I'm not embarrassed by that. By the same token, I spend way more time with science than you. Nothing to be embarrassed about. Ok?

    Lets start with where those dang predictions actually come from. By and large those will come from reports that large science institutions make to either the UN, or their constituent governments. Folks like, say, MIT, The WHO, NASA, NOAA... those sorts of large institutions. Also they are then amplified, or made famous I guess you could say, by all the media outlets coming out with reports on the reports, and yes, in come cases, even echoing the dire predictions.

    But none of these reports are 'scientific white papers'.

    White papers are written by much smaller groups of researchers. Sometimes individuals. Think of it as those researchers trying to convince other ones that their work is valid and should be accepted by the scientific community at large.

    Once the white paper is submitted, the researchers are looking for more than validation. They are also asking for additional eyes on it to help weed out any procedural errors. As I mentioned various procedural matters are important to science because they help weed out human influence of the result. These must be strictly followed or the researcher will be either corrected or trashed by peer review.

    The next thing that a white paper must contain falsification parameters. In other words, to be considered valid, tests or experiments must have both a success possibility and a failure possibility. Without both of those, science cannot be considered valid. And indeed, this is yet another thing that peer review may say lacks validity.

    So, the only predictions usually found in a white paper are small and compartmentalized ones, like this.

    Here is my hypothesis. Here is the experiment I want to do with all the procedures. This is what I predict will happen if I'm right, but this, however, is what will happen if I'm wrong.

    So, as you can see, GA, white papers aren't exactly the place for dire predictions. One reason, of course, is the it is rather presumptive and foolish to make predictions in a white paper because no one knows if it will be accepted. True, by the time you read it you'll know it was accpeted or you wouldn't be reading it, bit no one can know that at the time the document was written.
    BRAVO! Your insidious humility ever ceases to astonish me!
    "You boys are really making this thing harder than it has to be". Me

    “They can’t do anything about it unless they start shooting people, and presumably they won’t do that.” Protester & confirmed idiot.

    "I am not here to rescue you, I am bringing you along for emergency rations" Quark.

    "This is me, I'm not at home. If you'd like to reach me, leave me alone." Sherl Crow

    I give free estimates [Wild Ass Guesses] over the phone.

  4. #108
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    *bows*
    "Most people would sooner die than think; in fact, they do so." ― Bertrand Russell

  5. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tool-Slinger View Post
    Yea, I tend to agree with spaceracer's math, it's probably closer to 1% mortality rate. Then again, the infectious rate seems astonishing.
    The whole reason I corrected Space's math is for this reason. Because I know in general he offers detailed rather accurate information so people would tend to believe him. So let me state that Space didn't come up with 1%. The 1% is an educated guess by many in the scientific community. It is widely seen as a reasonable estimate of the mortality rate to account for the asymptomatic/ untested. There are also estimates that are lower, most I see in the last week are in the 0.8 to 1% range.

    What Space did was apply logic, good logic, to take that 1% down to 0.15%. The problem is... the same logic he used is how the experts are going from the current 4.5% down to the 1%. If it is as big of a drop as Space estimated it would go below 1%, but not even close to the 0.15% he mentioned. Because he started with incorrect assumptions.

    If you agree with his logic, just do his math but with a 4.5% starting point... it is within range of what experts are predicting.

    But at the end of the day, the hospitalization and infection rates are both far more concerning than the mortality rate.

  6. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidadavis View Post
    The whole reason I corrected Space's math is for this reason. Because I know in general he offers detailed rather accurate information so people would tend to believe him. So let me state that Space didn't come up with 1%. The 1% is an educated guess by many in the scientific community. It is widely seen as a reasonable estimate of the mortality rate to account for the asymptomatic/ untested. There are also estimates that are lower, most I see in the last week are in the 0.8 to 1% range.

    What Space did was apply logic, good logic, to take that 1% down to 0.15%. The problem is... the same logic he used is how the experts are going from the current 4.5% down to the 1%. If it is as big of a drop as Space estimated it would go below 1%, but not even close to the 0.15% he mentioned. Because he started with incorrect assumptions.

    If you agree with his logic, just do his math but with a 4.5% starting point... it is within range of what experts are predicting.

    But at the end of the day, the hospitalization and infection rates are both far more concerning than the mortality rate.
    Agreed there, the infectious rate is the danger here. Slow it down.... so the hospitals can keep up.
    "You boys are really making this thing harder than it has to be". Me

    “They can’t do anything about it unless they start shooting people, and presumably they won’t do that.” Protester & confirmed idiot.

    "I am not here to rescue you, I am bringing you along for emergency rations" Quark.

    "This is me, I'm not at home. If you'd like to reach me, leave me alone." Sherl Crow

    I give free estimates [Wild Ass Guesses] over the phone.

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  8. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tool-Slinger View Post
    I am skeptical, but yea, I am still left wondering at the moment,.. "if this were not a presidential election year, just how big of a deal would this be right now?" IDK, but there seems room for the doubt.


    And for Scrogg... yes I have a white paper on that. The package said Charmin Ultra Soft.
    Quote Originally Posted by davidadavis View Post
    I am skeptical it will be as bad as predicted also... but I do not believe at all that it has to do with politics. I think it is good ol fashioned yellow journalism along with the human fascination with doomsday predictions.

    https://www.livescience.com/14179-do...pocalypse.html
    I, too, an skeptical... more because I generally do not trust the MsM (and there is more than adequate proof to NOT trust them)!

    Question: you lefties that think the sky is falling (seems whenever Trump is in question, the sky is falling... rolling eyes)
    Are YOU gonna admit and apologize...
    WHEN (not if) it turns out the media was over-hyping this mess???
    GA-HVAC-Tech

    Your comfort, Your way, Everyday!

    GA's basic rules of home heating and AC upgrades:
    *Installation is more important than the brand of equipment
    *The duct system keeps the house comfortable; the equipment only heats and cools (and dehumidifies)
    *Cheap is not good, good is not cheap; however expensive is not a guarantee of quality!
    Choose your contractor wisely!

  9. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by scrogdog View Post
    I don't see myself as being superior, but GA, sorry, you DO NOT know what a white paper is. Fact. So let me try to explain it to you to clear up this incorrect notion you have, and maybe then also you will see the reason that I always tell people to read them instead of media science.

    First, I do not blame you for not knowing about them as usually if you are in the profession you don't learn about them until you are an undergraduate. In my case, I learned about them because I am a science hobbyist.

    In the same way I would not know as much as you about technical HVAC stuff. I'm not embarrassed by that. By the same token, I spend way more time with science than you. Nothing to be embarrassed about. Ok?

    Lets start with where those dang predictions actually come from. By and large those will come from reports that large science institutions make to either the UN, or their constituent governments. Folks like, say, MIT, The WHO, NASA, NOAA... those sorts of large institutions. Also they are then amplified, or made famous I guess you could say, by all the media outlets coming out with reports on the reports, and yes, in come cases, even echoing the dire predictions.

    But none of these reports are 'scientific white papers'.

    White papers are written by much smaller groups of researchers. Sometimes individuals. Think of it as those researchers trying to convince other ones that their work is valid and should be accepted by the scientific community at large.

    Once the white paper is submitted, the researchers are looking for more than validation. They are also asking for additional eyes on it to help weed out any procedural errors. As I mentioned various procedural matters are important to science because they help weed out human influence of the result. These must be strictly followed or the researcher will be either corrected or trashed by peer review.

    The next thing that a white paper must contain falsification parameters. In other words, to be considered valid, tests or experiments must have both a success possibility and a failure possibility. Without both of those, science cannot be considered valid. And indeed, this is yet another thing that peer review may say lacks validity.

    So, the only predictions usually found in a white paper are small and compartmentalized ones, like this.

    Here is my hypothesis. Here is the experiment I want to do with all the procedures. This is what I predict will happen if I'm right, but this, however, is what will happen if I'm wrong.

    So, as you can see, GA, white papers aren't exactly the place for dire predictions. One reason, of course, is the it is rather presumptive and foolish to make predictions in a white paper because no one knows if it will be accepted. True, by the time you read it you'll know it was accpeted or you wouldn't be reading it, bit no one can know that at the time the document was written.

    Earth to Scrog...

    Come down here, leave your science on the cloud, and have a beer with us...

    My question still stands:

    Are you willing to commit to the statement that NEVER has a prediction of an environmental event been made in a white paper, and it did not happen within the time frame???

    Until you are willing to commit to that...
    Then your beloved and pedestalized white papers are suspect...

    Sorry... GA is just a blunt person...
    Nothing personal...

    Thinking and communicating bluntly...
    Has allowed GA to not get caught up in MsM lies (excuse me, hyped lies)...
    So there is foundation for the blunt-ness...
    GA-HVAC-Tech

    Your comfort, Your way, Everyday!

    GA's basic rules of home heating and AC upgrades:
    *Installation is more important than the brand of equipment
    *The duct system keeps the house comfortable; the equipment only heats and cools (and dehumidifies)
    *Cheap is not good, good is not cheap; however expensive is not a guarantee of quality!
    Choose your contractor wisely!

  10. #113
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    [QUOTE=ga-hvac-tech;

    Question: you lefties that think the sky is falling (seems whenever Trump is in question, the sky is falling... rolling eyes)
    Are YOU gonna admit and apologize...
    WHEN (not if) it turns out the media was over-hyping this mess???[/QUOTE]

    He'll NO ! Can't you already see the backpedaling ?

  11. Likes ga-hvac-tech liked this post.
  12. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by scrogdog View Post
    Next behind the glass we have a real blade of grass! Be careful as you pass, Move along; move along.

    Come on see the show!

    (A little ELP there for you youngsters)
    Fixed it for you.

    PS, I’m no youngster
    Eric

  13. #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by scrogdog View Post
    Brian, whether or not math can be considered an empirical science is a debate that goes back to Plato.

    Even so, that does not mean that math can somehow follow different rules when it is acting, if you will, as a science. Science will ALWAYS have the same methodology.

    The only way math can be a science is if it also follows the scientific method. Hypothesis must be presented, falsification parameters must be identified, experiments must be conducted, results analyzed and interpreted.

    How can I be a denier when I have asked you to present the white paper that shows these things as ALL science requires but instead you give me a sentence from a wiki article? I'd be more than willing to consider this case, all that is required is that you actually MAKE the case.

    Interesting too that you'd spend your entire ARP career pooping on models, but now all of a sudden, they're good. Statistical models suffer from the same garbage-in/garbage-out mechanics that computer programs do. They might tell us something, they might be total garbage.

    That's what I hope to find out when you present the actual science. Please don't forget to show peer review as well.
    Are you really asking me for links to studies showing the link between recessions and the health, death rate and mental state of the population?

    Are you doubting that hundreds exist, or are you just being a PITA?

  14. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brian8383 View Post
    Are you really asking me for links to studies showing the link between recessions and the health, death rate and mental state of the population?

    Are you doubting that hundreds exist, or are you just being a PITA?

    Honestly... I wonder sometimes if he understands that factual material exists outside 'proper scientific papers'...
    GA-HVAC-Tech

    Your comfort, Your way, Everyday!

    GA's basic rules of home heating and AC upgrades:
    *Installation is more important than the brand of equipment
    *The duct system keeps the house comfortable; the equipment only heats and cools (and dehumidifies)
    *Cheap is not good, good is not cheap; however expensive is not a guarantee of quality!
    Choose your contractor wisely!

  15. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by ga-hvac-tech View Post
    Honestly... I wonder sometimes if he understands that factual material exists outside 'proper scientific papers'...
    True that.

    But also there are dozens of peer reviewed papers showing just what I stated earlier. Recessions cause widespread death and suffering. The deeper the recession, the worse it is. Trump is trying to balance that against the dangers of the virus.

    Democrats just want to spend another 2 Trillion and keep people home for months. Not for one second thinking about the effects to the economy and the fallout of a severe recession.

    Common sense. But some doesn't possess that quality.

    Sent from my LM-G710 using Tapatalk
    “Free men do not ask permission to bear arms.”
    -Possibly said by Thomas Jefferson(but true even if he didn't)


    “What one generation tolerates, the next generation will embrace.”
    ― Definitely said by John Wesley

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