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  1. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by printer2 View Post
    I am sure it was a lot longer than someone making a sketch on the back of a napkin. Yes the parts were made off site. It goes to show the planing and the infrastructure the Chinese are going through in their industries. They are not a bunch of backward third worlders that are willing to sit still.
    And neither was Japan in the early 1980's when they bought up the world... As noted: Their economy has yet to recover from that folly. Why would China be different?
    GA-HVAC-Tech

    Galatians 2:20-21; Colossians 1: 21-22 & 26-27; 3:1-4; Romans Ch's 5-6-7-8

    2 Chronicles 7:14

    Quality work at a fair price with excellent customer service.

  2. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by acmanko View Post
    I was wondering if anyone else could connect China today with what happened with Japan in the 80's. Good post.
    THX Ace,

    I suspect folks are caught up in the little details... and are missing the big picture. Strange how missing the big picture leaves folks scratching their heads when it happens.
    GA-HVAC-Tech

    Galatians 2:20-21; Colossians 1: 21-22 & 26-27; 3:1-4; Romans Ch's 5-6-7-8

    2 Chronicles 7:14

    Quality work at a fair price with excellent customer service.

  3. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by ga-hvac-tech View Post
    And neither was Japan in the early 1980's when they bought up the world... As noted: Their economy has yet to recover from that folly. Why would China be different?
    Let us see what are the differences between Japan then and China now. Japan was making first world wages, China is still at the developing world stage. The Japan economy was at its peak and could not grow anymore. China has a long way to go before it prices itself out of the market. It will have its ups and downs but they have a long way to get to the top before their fall.

  4. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by printer2 View Post
    Let us see what are the differences between Japan then and China now. Japan was making first world wages, China is still at the developing world stage. The Japan economy was at its peak and could not grow anymore. China has a long way to go before it prices itself out of the market. It will have its ups and downs but they have a long way to get to the top before their fall.
    Ahhh, but your statements assumes the things used for reference will not change. I am sure Japan thought the world would go on as it was... did not happen that way.

    As I noted before; NEVER under-estimate a Wall Street Banker... they just know things we do not...
    GA-HVAC-Tech

    Galatians 2:20-21; Colossians 1: 21-22 & 26-27; 3:1-4; Romans Ch's 5-6-7-8

    2 Chronicles 7:14

    Quality work at a fair price with excellent customer service.

  5. #44
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    Wall Street bankers and Corporate America control more than we'll ever know.

    That's Why Bush and Obama bailed them out.

  6. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by acmanko View Post
    Wall Street bankers and Corporate America control more than we'll ever know.

    That's Why Bush and Obama bailed them out.

    And from my studies of history, governments bailing out the financial guys goes back a lot farther than the origin of this country.

    Get used to it; money talks... and the one with the gold makes (or influences) the rules. I doubt this will ever change... And as they say: The trend is your friend, so do not buck the trend.
    GA-HVAC-Tech

    Galatians 2:20-21; Colossians 1: 21-22 & 26-27; 3:1-4; Romans Ch's 5-6-7-8

    2 Chronicles 7:14

    Quality work at a fair price with excellent customer service.

  7. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by ga-hvac-tech View Post
    And from my studies of history, governments bailing out the financial guys goes back a lot farther than the origin of this country.

    Get used to it; money talks... and the one with the gold makes (or influences) the rules. I doubt this will ever change... And as they say: The trend is your friend, so do not buck the trend.
    Yep, and we have not been around for very long. Considering China's history goes back about 6000 years

  8. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by acmanko View Post
    Yep, and we have not been around for very long. Considering China's history goes back about 6000 years
    Indeed!!! If anyone 'deserves' to be top dog, it would be China. They have more history than about any country currently in the world... yet they are just a large 'factory' to the world.

    I bet before communism came along; The government of China bailed out many a financial institution... as they do now: ALL the banks in China are government owned and funded. Sound familiar?
    GA-HVAC-Tech

    Galatians 2:20-21; Colossians 1: 21-22 & 26-27; 3:1-4; Romans Ch's 5-6-7-8

    2 Chronicles 7:14

    Quality work at a fair price with excellent customer service.

  9. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by ga-hvac-tech View Post
    And from my studies of history, governments bailing out the financial guys goes back a lot farther than the origin of this country.

    Get used to it; money talks... and the one with the gold makes (or influences) the rules. I doubt this will ever change... And as they say: The trend is your friend, so do not buck the trend.
    And there lies the crux of the problem, as "bailing out financial guys" is 180 out from the US Constitution. We will see over the next few years if they hear us, and if they dont, they will hear something else very briefly

  10. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by zzonko View Post
    And there lies the crux of the problem, as "bailing out financial guys" is 180 out from the US Constitution. We will see over the next few years if they hear us, and if they dont, they will hear something else very briefly
    I surely hope so!!!
    GA-HVAC-Tech

    Galatians 2:20-21; Colossians 1: 21-22 & 26-27; 3:1-4; Romans Ch's 5-6-7-8

    2 Chronicles 7:14

    Quality work at a fair price with excellent customer service.

  11. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by ga-hvac-tech View Post
    Indeed!!! If anyone 'deserves' to be top dog, it would be China. They have more history than about any country currently in the world... yet they are just a large 'factory' to the world.

    I bet before communism came along; The government of China bailed out many a financial institution... as they do now: ALL the banks in China are government owned and funded. Sound familiar?
    They may be 'just' the world's largest factory but think about how long it took them to be that. It has not even been a generation. I used to work for a aerospace manufacturer and, not a big surprise to me, there was a lot of knowledge floating around in the employees heads that do not make it into text books. Sure the text books said if you had this sheet of metal and you can form it with this amount of elongation. But what happens when you get an odd lot and you do not get the results you anticipated?

    Well that is what the company that I worked for forgot that the instruction sheets on how to make a part can only hold so much information. They got rid of many of their shop floor management to cut costs but these were the guys that have seen the problems that pop up now and then and knew how to adjust the process to get the right result. It is called Process Engineering, the Design Engineers seemed to have the more sexy job but the guys on the floor actually knew how to make the part.

    And this knowledge is what China has learned the last twenty years and we have been loosing. And all those people that know how to make things, how much of a step is it for them to design things themselves?

    I have a background in electronics and have looked up application notes, engineering documents on how to use ic chips, in this case a line of microprocessors. You know what? There was a larger number of application notes in Chinese than in English. Some devices had one basic document in English and multiple in depth documents in Chinese. (Could not read them but electrical schematics and charts with numbers and timing information translates across languages.)

    The Chinese are stepping from a rural economy into a manufacturing giant in twenty years. What is to say they can not equal all our accomplishments and surpass us in the next twenty?

  12. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by printer2 View Post
    They may be 'just' the world's largest factory but think about how long it took them to be that. It has not even been a generation. I used to work for a aerospace manufacturer and, not a big surprise to me, there was a lot of knowledge floating around in the employees heads that do not make it into text books. Sure the text books said if you had this sheet of metal and you can form it with this amount of elongation. But what happens when you get an odd lot and you do not get the results you anticipated?

    Well that is what the company that I worked for forgot that the instruction sheets on how to make a part can only hold so much information. They got rid of many of their shop floor management to cut costs but these were the guys that have seen the problems that pop up now and then and knew how to adjust the process to get the right result. It is called Process Engineering, the Design Engineers seemed to have the more sexy job but the guys on the floor actually knew how to make the part.

    And this knowledge is what China has learned the last twenty years and we have been loosing. And all those people that know how to make things, how much of a step is it for them to design things themselves?

    I have a background in electronics and have looked up application notes, engineering documents on how to use ic chips, in this case a line of microprocessors. You know what? There was a larger number of application notes in Chinese than in English. Some devices had one basic document in English and multiple in depth documents in Chinese. (Could not read them but electrical schematics and charts with numbers and timing information translates across languages.)

    The Chinese are stepping from a rural economy into a manufacturing giant in twenty years. What is to say they can not equal all our accomplishments and surpass us in the next twenty?
    Folks said the same things about Japan in the early 1980's... look now. Things do not always work as they appear they should...

    To understand how to 'roll with a trend' AND to be ready to 'change when the trend changes' is IMO an integral part of survival in business... And change is not always predictable by a number cruncher type.

    Here is an example: An investor that 'plays' the stock market would want to know if the market was 'bullish' (going up) or 'bearish' (going down). There is this thing called a trend... that is, a tendency for the market to continue to do as ti has done (time periods are a factor her, that is another story). There can be a primary trend and many secondary trends.
    Currently; we are in a primary BEAR trend, we have been there since around a year BEFORE the financial crash happened. There have been lots of secondary and later trends that go both bearish and bullish, but the PRIMARY trend is still bearish.
    Now do we always see the primary trend... no. Just because the DOW goes up for a week and all the talking heads SCREAM we are in a 'new bull market, all is good now' does not change the fact the primary trend is bearish.
    You see; to be able to discern the primary trend regardless of all the hubris... is what separates the folks making $$$ in the market... from the folks loosing $$$.

    IMO one needs the wisdom to step back and look at the larger picture... rather than assume things will happen as they appear they should. There are little hints of change in the air all the time... if folks are looking to see them. Problem is: full speed momentum tends to blind folks to those subtle little hints.

    I will restate my prediction: China WILL fail. How and when... well I do not have that crystal ball... But I have NO doubt the USA will come out on top after the dust settles. IMO it will take a significant part of this decade (this decade being 2010-2020) before the dust settles.
    GA-HVAC-Tech

    Galatians 2:20-21; Colossians 1: 21-22 & 26-27; 3:1-4; Romans Ch's 5-6-7-8

    2 Chronicles 7:14

    Quality work at a fair price with excellent customer service.

  13. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by ga-hvac-tech View Post
    I will restate my prediction: China WILL fail. How and when... well I do not have that crystal ball... But I have NO doubt the USA will come out on top after the dust settles. IMO it will take a significant part of this decade (this decade being 2010-2020) before the dust settles.
    All empires rise and fall. Look at France, Look at England. And the long line to Rome and even Egypt. History shows that no one stays on the top forever. Mainly because they grow larger than they can sustain. Usually when they loose control of the world outside their borders that at one time was used to sustain them.


    Mind you China has a continuous history that goes back to the time of the Egyptian Pharaohs.

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