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Thread: Reality Check...
04-05-2010, 09:58 PM #1
is what I need very seriously.
The news and govt state in the papers and TV that unemplyment is down, economy is coming out of whatever you want to call it, people are spending money and there is a seemingly presentation of overall doing pretty good in this country.
So, in the past month these are a few of my down and dirty on the street experiences.
Called a lead tech from a really great firm around here for some leads to parts..he's telling me his company is probably not going to make it through the summer. All the installs crews have already been laid off. This is a quality company with tons of customers that has been in business for 20 years.
Waitress friend told me she grew up with a guy that owns one of the well known HVAC firms around here. He's down to himself now. Laid off everybody.
Another waitress friend told me her husband that works for another pretty good HVAC co. is down to 3 people including the owner. They typically run 8 to 12 techs.
Drove by a firm of about 10+ guys today. All of their 4 install vans are sitting in their parking lot.
Last week or so drove by another 10 to 20 guy firm and at least 10 of their service vans are setting in front of their office during the day.
Just baby sat for a buddy that went out of town for a week. He watches over my business and I watch over his when out of town. We've been doing this for about 10 years or so. He does a ton of maintenance/replacement work for bottom feeding property managment companies. I'm always over whelmed with his customer phone calls while he is away. Got 3 phone calls during the whole week. He's says he's working part time for another co. to make some money. He's been around for a long time too.
Have three restaurant owner friends that tell me they are just making it. One is a lady in her late 50's that told me she and her husband borrowed money on their house to keep the restaurant open. And that if they can't they are going to lose their home.
Have two friends that are living off of unemployment.
This is the short version of what I have run into in the past months.
On the other hand we had lines of people sleeping out in front of stores to get the IPad thing. The news stories indicates something completely different and accutely opposite of my experiences.
So, where is the reality here?"The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers it can bribe the public with the public's own money.
- Alexis de Toqueville, 1835
04-06-2010, 12:31 AM #2Professional Member
- Join Date
- Feb 2008
Reality is the US is broke, and so are a majority of its people. The wealth has been flowing westward for centuries, no point in stopping the trend now. Fact is those Ipads are made in China, and there is no American manufactorers that are even close to capable to fabricating parts for the thing. Except maybe the leather carrying cases, but even there are you better off buying a Mexican one. Game over USA, game over.
04-06-2010, 12:34 AM #3
Another reality is that many of the techs who have been laid off for more then their unemployment period will be starting their own business and competing against the companies that laid them off.
I see new companies cropping up every week.Government is a disease......masquerading as its own cureEcclesiastes 10:2 NIV
04-06-2010, 12:39 AM #4Professional Member
- Join Date
- Sep 2005
04-06-2010, 01:11 AM #5
When a major repair is needed on a 10 year old system, how many of you try to show the consumer the benefits of replacing that system? There has never been a more beneficial time to upgrade systems. With tax credits and rebates the higher efficiency systems don't cost as much. With the cost of energy going up due to fossil fuel costs and electric providers no longer being regulated, the investment in a new HVAC system is the best return on investment you can find today.
Consumer have money. They just need to be shown that $10,000 in the bank or stock market is not going to give them the annual return that increasing the efficiency of their heating and cooling system will. If a consumer is making 5% (a high yeild) on their $10,000 dollar investment, that works out to $500. If that same $10,000 is put into an HVAC system that will be cutting energy costs by 30% and the cost of energy is $5,000 with the current systems, that works out to $1500 in savings. So, is it worth $500 to lose $1500?Government is a disease......masquerading as its own cureEcclesiastes 10:2 NIV
04-06-2010, 01:44 PM #6No reserve. No retreat. No regrets.
For those who have fought for it, freedom has a sweetness the protected will never know.
Proud member of KA Club
04-06-2010, 02:08 PM #7
A good number of my customers are very high income. They have pretty much stopped spending money and have invested overseas where there is a return, they tell me in so many words. No they have not given me details as they keep that to themselves and it's none of my business anyway, I'm sure.
We also have a great many new techs starting their own business primarily because they believe that their previous company just didn't know what they were doing and that is why they got laid off.
So they spend their hard earned money getting all the tools, licenses, bonds, insurance and truck to open up their own. In a short period of time they find out why their previous company laid them off. Some of my distrubutors have told me some of these guys are getting stuff and are not able to pay, which only compounds the problem.
On the other hand I'm sure a few of these guys will succeed in one way or another. It's always been the case. But I also see that the cost of being in our business is increasing pretty much across the board here in WA state, but the ability to get a fair price for services is decreasing due to so much competition.
I'm sure this must be true across the nation. And it's not making most of the installs that I have seen for a while better, but worse in a lot of cases.
I like to look for opportunity where I see it but I'm not seeing a lot of opportunity in this present crisis, and it is a crisis, that we may or may not live through.
To me, this still is not a recession, like most need to believe, but a destruction of our way of life. So we will not be getting out of it like in the past.
Reallity sucks. I deal in reallity as a trouble shooter. People hire me to get their system working and I have to see what is wrong, not what I want to see is wrong. I'm seeing a lot of problems in this country with the average and skilled working person as far as employment is concerned."The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers it can bribe the public with the public's own money.
- Alexis de Toqueville, 1835
04-06-2010, 04:52 PM #8Using marijuana instead of other drugs because it is not as addictive is like shooting yourself in the foot with a 9mm instead of a .45 because the bullets are smaller.
04-06-2010, 06:41 PM #9
04-06-2010, 07:07 PM #10
04-06-2010, 07:11 PM #11
[QUOTE=DeltaT;6371702]A good number of my customers are very high income. They have pretty much stopped spending money and have invested overseas where there is a return, they tell me in so many words. No they have not given me details as they keep that to themselves and it's none of my business anyway Well they got to be feeling dumb right about now.The YTD for the DOW is over 5% and the S&P over 6.5%,thats on top of the 60% last year.And they are starting to spend,we have blowout numbers from retail,companys like Nike and Best Buy,Even Sears and Home Depolt
04-06-2010, 07:12 PM #12