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Thread: A prediction

  1. #1
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    A prediction

    Based on the current economic situation, I have a prediction. We all know that a lot of people have been displaced from factory/manufacturing jobs, even tech jobs, and have enrolled in HVAC related/ building trades related schooling. It woud seem that this would be a windfall for the HVAC industry, as we always here of the lack of trained/quality/motivated persons in the HVAC work force.
    What has happened, in reality, is that HVAC companies/industry has suffered along with the general populace. Also, the owners and operators have been able to "pick and choose" with much more authority since the job market went in the tank. This inevitably has discouraged new people from entering the HVAC field.
    Look at this board. I sincerly hope these people hold out, can hold out, or find really good and rewarding careers. The human side of any of us who read of the plight of these people trying to get by cannot help but be touched, at least somehow. So, on to my prediction.
    The available pool of people who are trying to get in the door in HVAC will make a decision to keep trying, or at the first turn of the economy go back to their old careers or take other careers. In all likelyhood, with some of the stress related to what goes on in trying to get on with a shop or union etc. they may turn their backs on HVAC.
    When the economy really turns, our industry will really be hurting for new blood. We will be worse off than we are now.

    Keep your heads up, all of you.


    r404a

  2. #2
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    The guy who played the mail carrier on "Cheers," (I forget his name), was on Fox Business Network a couple weeks ago. He was talking about how in the next few years many of the construction fields are going to be hurting for people. Mainly because so few young people want to go into the fields because they get a bad rap. The biggest of it being that only stupid people work in the trades. I'm not sure how right he is. However, I'm sure of one thing. The HVAC companies (after the economy turns) are going to need to start hiring entry level people again eventually. We all know that they want people with 2, 5, 10, years of experience. People eventually die, or retire. There's going to be a time when to hire people with more and more years of experience, with fewer people in the field, companies are going to have to start offering some very high wages and/or compensation packages. At least thats what I'm thinking. I'm new to the field and havent been able to find a job, so thats my hope. That they're going to have to start hiring new people.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by r404a View Post
    Based on the current economic situation, I have a prediction. We all know that a lot of people have been displaced from factory/manufacturing jobs, even tech jobs, and have enrolled in HVAC related/ building trades related schooling. It woud seem that this would be a windfall for the HVAC industry, as we always here of the lack of trained/quality/motivated persons in the HVAC work force.
    What has happened, in reality, is that HVAC companies/industry has suffered along with the general populace. Also, the owners and operators have been able to "pick and choose" with much more authority since the job market went in the tank. This inevitably has discouraged new people from entering the HVAC field.
    Look at this board. I sincerly hope these people hold out, can hold out, or find really good and rewarding careers. The human side of any of us who read of the plight of these people trying to get by cannot help but be touched, at least somehow. So, on to my prediction.
    The available pool of people who are trying to get in the door in HVAC will make a decision to keep trying, or at the first turn of the economy go back to their old careers or take other careers. In all likelyhood, with some of the stress related to what goes on in trying to get on with a shop or union etc. they may turn their backs on HVAC.
    When the economy really turns, our industry will really be hurting for new blood. We will be worse off than we are now.

    Keep your heads up, all of you.


    r404a
    Typically, when there are too few skilled people in a trade, the value of that individual tradesman goes up. This is good news for industry wide wages. A flood of people entering any industry is not good, as when a flood of young people entered the legal profession in the 1980's, on the idea that there were too few lawyers.

    This also happens in aviation. Schools are constantly saying there is an impending need for new pilots, because of baby boom retirees. If there is a shortage, it is only a shortage of pilots who will work for low wages. In the 1960's, young people almost stopped becoming professional pilots. Airlines were recruiting men in their 40's who had flying experience. They lured them in with high wages, supported by the laws of regulated carriage that allowed higher ticket prices in real dollars. No "Southwests" back then.

    So, when a school, ANY school, tells you there is a shortage in any given field, you must remind yourself that it is only a shortage of those who will work for low wages. Anytime an industry wants to hire enough people, all they have to do to attract the beast talent is to PAY THEM for that talent.

    Is a school telling you that there is a shortage of HVAC techs? I'd think long and hard before I gave that any credence. There IS a shortage of those who will enter this field at entry level wages, that is for certain.
    [Avatar photo from a Florida training accident. Everyone walked away.]
    2 Tim 3:16-17

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  4. #4
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    good thought time builder

  5. #5
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    Thumbs up

    Quote Originally Posted by r404a View Post
    good thought time builder
    Totally agree!
    Can someone please explain to me -
    Why is there never enough time to do it right the first time, but plenty of time to do it twice?


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  6. #6
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    I have been trying to be optimisic about getting in to this field. I have got in to a couple of apprentice pools but that is just a long list. I am going to try to wait it out. My concern is that I am 36 now what if it takes 4 yrs before things get better than I'll be 40. I dont think to many companies will hire a 40yr old virgin to the field. Will they? Time is not on my side

  7. #7
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    fallguy
    I dont believe that age is as critical of a factor as some think


    r404a

  8. #8
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    If you were considering aviation, I would say 40 was too old to get a decent job because it can take more than three years to get to the point where you become even basically marketable.

    If you have mechanical talent, and know something about electricity or electronics, 40 should be fine for HVAC.
    [Avatar photo from a Florida training accident. Everyone walked away.]
    2 Tim 3:16-17

    RSES CMS, HVAC Electrical Specialist

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  9. #9
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    Never too old

    Age 40 would not be a problem for an employer. It may be harder on you as you will have to suffer up through the lower wages until you get the skills that employers will pay big bucks for.

    As long as you are responsible and are really interested in the trade, your age would not be a problem.

    I find that most employers are more interested in attitude rather than aptitude.

    HTH
    Can someone please explain to me -
    Why is there never enough time to do it right the first time, but plenty of time to do it twice?


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  10. #10
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    Not trying to sound discouraging but I think there are far too many votech , college , and private companies that have HVAC courses.


    over the years I have always had to laugh at how every area that has hvac taught in the area ...........it ends up being low pay or high turn over rates being so many new guys are turned out every year.

    People in those situations better be willing to move somewhere where the courses are not being taught.

  11. #11
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    2 things. People that would have retired in the next few years are going to be working longer since their 401K just went south.

    The other is if you want to find out where there is a shortage of jobs, look at the Sunday classifieds and compare how many ads there are for any given field you want to get into. Also look at starting wages for that field for a newbie.
    Discipline your child so that other parents don't have to.

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  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by dec View Post
    Not trying to sound discouraging but I think there are far too many votech , college , and private companies that have HVAC courses.


    over the years I have always had to laugh at how every area that has hvac taught in the area ...........it ends up being low pay or high turn over rates being so many new guys are turned out every year.

    People in those situations better be willing to move somewhere where the courses are not being taught.
    Perhaps the most frustrating part, in the end, for the HVAC student in any given area is that the school will have very little in terms of an "aptitude test" for mechanical work There are many folks in the population upon whom any concept of electricity, screw threads, fan direction, etc is lost. Some are teachable to develop a mere glimmer of mechanical talent, but I also believe that there are those who might have an interest, yet virtually no mechanical talent for the instructor to develop. Of course, this idea assumes that the instructor is talented at his teaching job, as well.

    So, there are some who are talented, even gifted at mechanical work and they will excel. Others will either drop out or muddle through, with only a tenuous grasp of the basic concepts. For them, their desire has exceeded their abilities, and without strong oversight by a good journeyman/teacher, they will be slow on the uptake.

    We know that there is no aptitude test for a good reason: the registrar's job is to fill those seats. There is no guarantee that any of those students have the first reason to be there, and the school will literally be making money at their expense.

    If you are considering an HVAC career, be your own watchdog. Do you have a talent for mechanical things? Do you take them apart to see how they work, and are then able to put them back together? When you were a teen, did you take on jobs around the house like fixing the family washing machine? Did you build a street rod? Motorcycle? You may be the kind of kid who could do well in HVAC. If you have never had a desire to do these things, and have little concept of how things work inside, then you are probably not a good candidate for this field.

    If someone whats to sell you an HVAC course, remember these Latin words: "Caveat Emptor." It means, "let the buyer beware."
    [Avatar photo from a Florida training accident. Everyone walked away.]
    2 Tim 3:16-17

    RSES CMS, HVAC Electrical Specialist

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  13. #13
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    this trade requires brains and a hard ball busting work ethic. Good luck finding that these days. This trade is so wide open and so full of opportunity but you got to go get it. And way too few people are smart enough with the hard work ethic to even get past the first year. A lot of guys wash out of this. Which is the way it is suppose to be.

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