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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Midwest
    Posts
    194

    RESIDENTIAL Life cycle/expectancy

    Can anyone direct me to a page or chart from a reputable source for finding the average life expectancy of split systems, furnaces, boilers, and heat pumps? I just need something simple for customers that ask me. I don't need energy savings numbers, but if you have some that you like, include them too. Thanks in advance.

    Randy

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Bay Area, CA
    Posts
    843
    Quick google first result is this website that combines several trade and goverment articles into one, you probably could take that and find the exact articles.

    link

    sources for the mechanical were listed as Sources: Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Institute, Air Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration News, Air Movement and Control Association, American Gas Association, American Society of Gas Engineers, American Society of Heating, Refrigeration and Air-Conditioning Engineers, Inc., Safe Aire Incorporated
    Global Warming or: None like it hot
    No pleasure, no rapture, no exquisite sin greater... than central air. -Dogma

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cedar Grove, Wi-Sheboygan
    Posts
    1,582
    Why don't you tell your customers that any equipment will last as long as there maintained by a rebuttal HVAC contractor and not some hack!!! Ask your customers how long a car should last ? which again will last as long as you take care and maintain the vehicle on a regular basis, oil change, tune ups, new tires, tire pressure, drive the vehicle with care ?? Same should hold true with a homes HVAC equipment, and as long as the customer does the same type of maintenance, filter changed regularly, tune ups yearly or bi-yearly and have any problems fixed ASAP instead of hoping they fix themselves !! Or you could just ask them whats the difference between your car and your HVAC

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Bay Area, CA
    Posts
    843
    Current repair cost + estimated future repair cost for however long the homeowner plans to keep his current home + extra energy wasted by having an inefficient system < cost of new system - reduce energy cost for how ever long they plan to keep the house.

    Would be still within its life expectancy, when its greater then it needs to go.

    20 years ago there were noninduced draft furnaces and low seer a/c systems, wether that formula can hold true for future systems is anyones guess. not much energy savings from 96 to 100% efficient furnaces unless energy prices sky rocket.

    As far as a/c there seems that there can be alot more improvement and it might still hold true for the next 20 years.
    Global Warming or: None like it hot
    No pleasure, no rapture, no exquisite sin greater... than central air. -Dogma

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Middle Tennessee
    Posts
    11,347

    *

    if i had a dime for everytime a customer asked how long the equipment is supposed to last

    my favorite answer is;

    "usually" somewhere between 10 and 15 years

    if they live within 10 miles of the beach i will add

    "it can be less than 10 years"



    .

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    1,673
    Here's data collected from a reputable source [this forum].

    "HVAC" life in years
    how many reached this age|age reached
    1|1
    2|7
    2|10
    2|12
    1|13
    3|15
    2|18
    7|20
    1|25
    2|30
    1|35
    1|50
    1|56
    1|58
    1|80
    The average life is 16 years.

    Suppose the HO's unit is 30 years old. There are 5 cases of units being older than this, with the middle case being 56 years old. Therefore he has a 50-50 chance of getting 26 more years out of the unit.

    Of course, anyone has a 50-50 chance of their unit lasting more than 16 years.

    There are many reasons to replace:

    Don't want to sink more money into a lemon
    Don't want to sink more money into a non-lemon
    Can't get parts
    Wants a more energy-efficient unit
    Wants more comfort or less discomfort
    It doesn't work or is failing gracefully
    Not sized correctly
    Size of family or structure changes
    smells bad
    gives me headaches (CO)
    I'm afraid it will fail by exploding in the middle of the night and level my house.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    S.C.
    Posts
    1,401
    Hey, I hate to say it "Sometimes the (original) Carpet will Outlast the A/C Unit..." but I've seen it.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Biloxi, Ms.
    Posts
    176
    Quote Originally Posted by ZZZRSC View Post
    Can anyone direct me to a page or chart from a reputable source for finding the average life expectancy of split systems, furnaces, boilers, and heat pumps? I just need something simple for customers that ask me. I don't need energy savings numbers, but if you have some that you like, include them too. Thanks in advance.

    Randy
    A year ago I had 3 factory reps. in my office because of a recurring problem we were having with their coils. They said their coils had a 5 year warranty. I asked if they felt that the coils should last more than 5 years. They wouldn't say that they should. This is a company that, in the past, had units that have lasted 30 years.
    I know I didn't respond to your question, but you have some good responses from others.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    1,673
    Quote Originally Posted by ball a/c View Post
    their coils had a 5 year warranty.
    had units that have lasted 30 years.
    For the company, it's better having this than having a 30 yr warranty when half the units fail after 5 yrs.

    The thing with the probability estimate is that you're "never wrong" [but see below].
    If the guy has a 50-50 chance of getting 16 yrs out of his unit and it fails after 1 yr (let's say due to salty air) then he fell on the wrong side of the 50-50, this time.

    The manufacturers know the calculated and actual Mean Time Between Failures for their units, but they are certainly not going to let anyone else know.


    Anyway, for your recurring coil problem; let's say you had a coil fail within a year and the likelihood of this happening by chance and not due to a manuf. defect is 10%. OK, so you got unlucky.

    Now another coil fails the next year. The chance of this happening by coincidence is now (1/10)^2 = 1/100.

    For a third coil in 3 yrs it's 1/1000. Kind of looks like now that these are not random failures and the new average lifetime for these coils is not 30 yrs but 1 yr [assuming the failures are due to the coils themselves and not some root cause that has yet to be discovered].

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    The Twilight Zone
    Posts
    2,964
    Quote Originally Posted by DanW13 View Post
    Why don't you tell your customers that any equipment will last as long as there maintained by a rebuttal HVAC contractor and not some hack!!!
    "rebuttal" = "reputable"?

    Take care.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Home&Marine View Post
    Hey, I hate to say it "Sometimes the (original) Carpet will Outlast the A/C Unit..." but I've seen it.
    That's the case for me! My original carpeting is 32 years old and has outlasted two HVAC systems. It may outlast the current system too! Just glad I don't have a wife around telling me to redecorate every few years.

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