I have a copy of a manual J done on my house. If I am reading it correctly, the heating load is 43351 and cooling is 25503. CFMs = 1234
SQ Feet = 1933

A 3 ton system was recommended based on these numbers. (This also happens to be the size of the current system.)

Here is the system and it's performance numbers. The cooling numbers are close to a full 3 tons, but the heating numbers seem low. Especially if the heating load is 43351. Will this heat pump have any trouble heating my house until the temp gets low enough for the propane furnace to kick in?

XR-13 4TWR3036A
90% TUX1B080A9421A (74K BTU)

SEER 14.00 (35200 cooling)
HSPF 8.50 (31000 at 47* / 19600 at17*)
EER 11.80