New HVAC install in SoCal - Is it too big?

[SunnyDee]

I am looking to replace the original floor furnacea with a central heating&cooling system. The home was built in 1953, 1700 sqare ft. located in Southern California (about 5 miles from the coast). I've had 7 estimates, most of them very similar, but one (who performed the heat-load calc.) about 50% higher than the others. The calculated numbers are:
BTU Heating: 31,540
Heating CFM: 1,351
BTU Cooling: 34,618
Sensible Cooling: 28,553
Latent Cooling: 6,364
Cooling CFM: 1,353
To satisfy these, that contractor bid Trane equipment that was 3 ton cooling and a two stage, 63,000 BTU furnace. That bid is too expensive.

I am leaning towards the contractor who is bidding Carrier equimpent. However, he recommends 3.5 ton 38HDR air conditioner and the Infinity96 58MVB080-20 (80K BTU, 2-stage, variable speed) furnace.

I think he is oversizing the equipment. He didn't do a heatload calculation, he's been in the business locally for 24 years and says he knows these homes very well. I want to ask him to bid the 3 ton unit instead and the MVB060-14 (60K BTU).

Is he oversizing the equipment? Would my proposed equimpent be sufficient based on the heatcalc numbers?

[SunnyDee]

I'm a newb here and posted in the wrong forum. Moderator please move to Residential HVAC.