Looking for advice on choosing between the Amana 2 stage multi speed gas furnace and the Goodman Variable Speed Modulating gas furnace.

I live in a small ranch house, approximately 937 square feet in Upstate NY. I do not more then one heating zone.

Can any one explain the difference between a 2 stage and a modulating and which one may be more appropriate? These two furnaces were suggested by 2 different contractors. One recommended variable speed, one felt it was not necessary.

I am inclined to think modulating may be better but is it overkill for a small house?