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  1. #40
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    Feb 2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by newoldtech View Post
    The stock market seems to march to their own beat. The market has been doing well all year, not just Today. Last Friday the jobs report was weak, so the market rallied figuring that would prompt the fed to step in. Had the report been strong, the market would of probably still rallied on that signalling a better economy. Another example of how the market sees things, if a company announces that it is laying off alot workers that is usually seen as a good thing as they appear to be trimming costs. The market does alot of counter intuitive things at times but after awhile will probably correct itself with a big crash. I think that will happen next spring. But one never knows for sure.
    If the jobs figure goes up that means more money in the system and more money that the markets can make off the economy. But those jobs and the money they bring has to come from somewhere. The whole idea behind the stimulus spending that we went through before was to give some incentive for private money to invest so that the economy would grow. That did not happen and the markets want more public money thrown in, will we see greater involvement of private money? What may make the companies invest to increase productivity (more profit with fewer jobs) is the companies are sitting on so much cash that they are really tempting for raiders to buy them up and strip them apart to make a quick profit. So I think no matter which party gets in to power in the fall you will see some of that dead money come back into the economy, either as investments or dividends just to keep the raiders at bay.
    Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference. —Mark Twain

  2. #41
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    Jan 2009
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    Keokuk, IA
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    Quote Originally Posted by tedkidd View Post
    A great deal of wealth was stolen from us; by banks through devaluation of our property, and by government when they bailed out the banks. It will be stolen again through the eventual inflation that will result. It is a wonderful way to harvest wealth from a population. Without pressure, this will continue and grow more prevalent.
    .

    I think more accurately... that's only 1/2 true. Much of that wealth was "on paper". Property in most areas shold never have increased more than am amount slightly above inflation unless it was a very high demand market. Mcuh fo hte demand was created artificially through loose guidelines inflated real estate prices by creating more demand and turnover. Now, banks did cash in, so some weath was "stolen" and more improtantly, they failed ot carry reserves to cover losses... so the government stepped in, and yet again the wonderful generation of Baby Boomers tacked yet another debt onto their children and grandchildren on top of the explosion of entitlements and goverment regulation that much of that generation of peace loving hippies fought for and helped install.

  3. #42
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    Rochester NY
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    When government sells a tax by calling it a retirement investment with a defined benefit, then in a short period of human history mortality and morbidity change DRAMATICALLY, you've basically created a huge poorly funded obligation where recipients have bloated sense of entitlement without care or understanding that the projected costs were completely wrong. They don't see that they are getting WAY MORE than they paid for. Warren Buffet style returns on investment.

    This funded program goes to unfunded mandate, payable to a very powerful group with a lot of time on it's hand's to make noise. But what's the solution, cancel SS, Medicaid and Medicare? Reduce or remove benefits our parents and grandparents have become dependent on? Reduce or remove benefits from our future selves?

    SS is a TAX. Looking at it as an investment orients our whole society into entitlement thinking. Entitlement thinking is a blight, a cancer on our society, that we all have been taught. How do we change the thinking. Not in others, in ourselves. It needs to come from within first or it's again an "us" vs "them" divisive problem.

    OK, I'll say it, sometimes it's better to fix what you've got rather than change the system. This vague talk about "the problem of entitlements" is about as absurd and unproductive as painting a whole religion as "radical". It's hyper simplistic unsophisticated black and white thinking. As with anything not well considered, radical change will have unintended costs and consequences greater than no change at all.

    On the economy... I don't see us shrinking the deficit without some serious assistance from inflation. That's got me a bit frightened.
    Last edited by tedkidd; 09-14-2012 at 03:01 PM.
    Which makes more sense to you?
    CONSERVATION - turning your thermostat back and being uncomfortable. Maybe saving 5-10%
    ENERGY EFFICIENCY - leaving your thermostat where everyone is comfortable. Saving 30-70%

    DO THE NUMBERS! Step on a HOMESCALE.
    What is comfort? Well, it AIN'T just TEMPERATURE!

    Energy Obese? An audit is the next step - go to BPI.org, or RESNET, and find an auditor near you.

  4. #43
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
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    Canada
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    6,876
    Quote Originally Posted by tedkidd View Post
    When government sells a tax by calling it a retirement investment with a defined benefit, then in a short period of human history mortality and morbidity change DRAMATICALLY, you've basically created a huge poorly funded obligation where recipients have bloated sense of entitlement without care or understanding that the projected costs were completely wrong. They don't see that they are getting WAY MORE than they paid for. Warren Buffet style returns on investment.

    This funded program goes to unfunded mandate, payable to a very powerful group with a lot of time on it's hand's to make noise. But what's the solution, cancel SS, Medicaid and Medicare? Reduce or remove benefits our parents and grandparents have become dependent on? Reduce or remove benefits from our future selves?
    We reduced what our programs pay out and increased contributions to cover future costs.

    SS is a TAX. Looking at it as an investment orients our whole society into entitlement thinking. Entitlement thinking is a blight, a cancer on our society, that we all have been taught. How do we change the thinking. Not in others, in ourselves. It needs to come from within first or it's again an "us" vs "them" divisive problem.

    OK, I'll say it, sometimes it's better to fix what you've got rather than change the system. This vague talk about "the problem of entitlements" is about as absurd and unproductive as painting a whole religion as "radical". It's hyper simplistic unsophisticated black and white thinking. As with anything not well considered, radical change will have unintended costs and consequences greater than no change at all.
    Yeah, just think about if you just cut all SS spending (your greatest expense). It would through your economy into recession or even depression, no company would invest in growth given that scenario.

    On the economy... I don't see us shrinking the deficit without some serious assistance from inflation. That's got me a bit frightened.[/QUOTE]

    Well, you could try repealing the Bush tax cuts for a start and start paying back the money you borrowed. We cut costs and used additional government revenue (nice way to say added taxes) to reduce out debt to around the 30% mark. Rather than inflating our way out of debt the value of our dollar is now 50% more.
    Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference. —Mark Twain

  5. #44
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    Sep 2005
    Location
    Atlanta GA area
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    Quote Originally Posted by tedkidd View Post
    When government sells a tax by calling it a retirement investment with a defined benefit, then in a short period of human history mortality and morbidity change DRAMATICALLY, you've basically created a huge poorly funded obligation where recipients have bloated sense of entitlement without care or understanding that the projected costs were completely wrong. They don't see that they are getting WAY MORE than they paid for. Warren Buffet style returns on investment.

    This funded program goes to unfunded mandate, payable to a very powerful group with a lot of time on it's hand's to make noise. But what's the solution, cancel SS, Medicaid and Medicare? Reduce or remove benefits our parents and grandparents have become dependent on? Reduce or remove benefits from our future selves?

    SS is a TAX. Looking at it as an investment orients our whole society into entitlement thinking. Entitlement thinking is a blight, a cancer on our society, that we all have been taught. How do we change the thinking. Not in others, in ourselves. It needs to come from within first or it's again an "us" vs "them" divisive problem.

    OK, I'll say it, sometimes it's better to fix what you've got rather than change the system. This vague talk about "the problem of entitlements" is about as absurd and unproductive as painting a whole religion as "radical". It's hyper simplistic unsophisticated black and white thinking. As with anything not well considered, radical change will have unintended costs and consequences greater than no change at all.

    On the economy... I don't see us shrinking the deficit without some serious assistance from inflation. That's got me a bit frightened.
    Good post! Entitlements will be the death of this nation... if we do not get the mentality of 'my rights' changed.

    The hi-lited line is a given... the only part we do not yet know is how much inflation before the bond market collapses and interest rates soar to cap the inflation... which will cause a second housing crises. Problem is; this next housing crises will not respond to the FED buying mortgage paper... A point is coming where the FED inflating the money supply will no longer cause economic activity... rather thwart it.
    Wonder how high gold will go? Or will TPTB continue to manipulate the price through futures?

    BTW: I guess you saw... QE3 is more or less here. FED is gonna buy around $40B a mos of mortgage paper.
    GA-HVAC-Tech

    Quality work at a fair price with excellent customer service!

    Romans Ch's 5-6-7-8

    2 Chronicles 7:14

  6. #45
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    Jul 2008
    Location
    Rochester NY
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    I do see the next 8 years as stagnant with housing troubles. Too late for metals. Long bonds seem crazy, So short term go to cash? Necessities and cheap entertainment? Batteries and carbon fiber?
    Which makes more sense to you?
    CONSERVATION - turning your thermostat back and being uncomfortable. Maybe saving 5-10%
    ENERGY EFFICIENCY - leaving your thermostat where everyone is comfortable. Saving 30-70%

    DO THE NUMBERS! Step on a HOMESCALE.
    What is comfort? Well, it AIN'T just TEMPERATURE!

    Energy Obese? An audit is the next step - go to BPI.org, or RESNET, and find an auditor near you.

  7. #46
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Atlanta GA area
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    21,766
    Quote Originally Posted by tedkidd View Post
    I do see the next 8 years as stagnant with housing troubles. Too late for metals. Long bonds seem crazy, So short term go to cash? Necessities and cheap entertainment? Batteries and carbon fiber?
    Agree on the metals (AU, AG, etc). I have some $$$ in PL and PD mines... more based on industrial demand than investment demand.

    Wonder if buying non-developed vacation property (foreclosed, cheap) would be a viable long term investment to look at? In the N GA mountains, there are lots of gated communities... perhaps buy a few lots within one and just wait? Personally, I think if interest rates go up... there will be a second housing crises... might be a better time to buy.

    However: If we get double digit interest rates (as in the early 1980's), then CD's might be just as good.

    Or one could take a REAL long shot... and short Apple around the first of the year.

    Thoughts?
    GA-HVAC-Tech

    Quality work at a fair price with excellent customer service!

    Romans Ch's 5-6-7-8

    2 Chronicles 7:14

  8. #47
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    Jul 2008
    Location
    Rochester NY
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    Those are all thoughts I've had too, except the apple thing. Gotta have mad stacks and big sack to use shorting as hedge strategy. I'm just worried about my buck three eighty.

    And RE, for me, needs cash flow. Without it taxes and maint can make long term return a tough hill to climb.
    Which makes more sense to you?
    CONSERVATION - turning your thermostat back and being uncomfortable. Maybe saving 5-10%
    ENERGY EFFICIENCY - leaving your thermostat where everyone is comfortable. Saving 30-70%

    DO THE NUMBERS! Step on a HOMESCALE.
    What is comfort? Well, it AIN'T just TEMPERATURE!

    Energy Obese? An audit is the next step - go to BPI.org, or RESNET, and find an auditor near you.

  9. #48
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Atlanta GA area
    Posts
    21,766
    The iphone 5 is the last thing Jobs was involved in... there will be a shift in the co soon. OTOH: if Mitten gets elected and chooses to arrange for corps to bring home the cash abroad... Apple will look good on paper for a while longer. The lone block at the top of the pyramid never stays there for long. Even the legal wins will not keep Apple on top forever.

    Understand the cash flow thingy; us HVAC guys/gals deal with it every year.

    What I am looking for is a long term place to put some cash, where the return will be better than the coming inflation rate... any thoughts?
    GA-HVAC-Tech

    Quality work at a fair price with excellent customer service!

    Romans Ch's 5-6-7-8

    2 Chronicles 7:14

  10. #49
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    Jul 2008
    Location
    Rochester NY
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    I used to be set n forget. That's worked reasonably well, but we seem to be approaching a very disruptive time. Peak oil, renewables becoming competitive, big data and crazy fast information transfer, technology changing best practices.

    Im thinking go to cash, dollar cost back into glass, carbon fiber, big data management (amazon?). Inflation only hurts cash long term.

    But your guess is probably better than mine. My cristal ball only works for saving energy and improving comfort, and even those pictures are often a bit blurry.
    Which makes more sense to you?
    CONSERVATION - turning your thermostat back and being uncomfortable. Maybe saving 5-10%
    ENERGY EFFICIENCY - leaving your thermostat where everyone is comfortable. Saving 30-70%

    DO THE NUMBERS! Step on a HOMESCALE.
    What is comfort? Well, it AIN'T just TEMPERATURE!

    Energy Obese? An audit is the next step - go to BPI.org, or RESNET, and find an auditor near you.

  11. #50
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Atlanta GA area
    Posts
    21,766
    Short term equities trading is tuff to make a buck in... With flash trading the big guys have an advantage.

    I see the online brokers are pushing trading on foreign exchanges. Wonder if they have a system of arbitrage to skim the trades set up (yet).

    Wish there were something as simple as the metals or commodities to hold... however I cannot find it.

    The only thing I see out there is RE... however I do NOT want to be a landlord again... too many govt regs... it is a $$$ loosing deal day to day. And the recovery seems TOO far away.
    Still, I see lots of rehab going on... and investors are literally bidding for foreclosures. Go figure.
    GA-HVAC-Tech

    Quality work at a fair price with excellent customer service!

    Romans Ch's 5-6-7-8

    2 Chronicles 7:14

  12. #51
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Atlanta GA area
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    21,766
    Quote Originally Posted by tedkidd View Post
    I used to be set n forget. That's worked reasonably well, but we seem to be approaching a very disruptive time. Peak oil, renewables becoming competitive, big data and crazy fast information transfer, technology changing best practices.

    Im thinking go to cash, dollar cost back into glass, carbon fiber, big data management (amazon?). Inflation only hurts cash long term.

    But your guess is probably better than mine. My cristal ball only works for saving energy and improving comfort, and even those pictures are often a bit blurry.
    The better part of my 'busy season' this year was higher end equipment... Some folks still buying it.

    Cash might be the better place for the short term... just hate to have inflation take away the value of the asset.
    GA-HVAC-Tech

    Quality work at a fair price with excellent customer service!

    Romans Ch's 5-6-7-8

    2 Chronicles 7:14

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