I'm in central N.C., an area where dual-fuel heat pump systems are supposed to be advantageous. However, my NG price is currently $0.89/therm, and the dual-fuel Heat Pump system that gets comparable efficiency ratings to the AC-furnace system we are considering costs$ more. Also, the dual-fuel Heat Pump system that is comparable in price to the AC-furnace system we are considering has lower efficiency ratings: 15.5 SEER vs. 19 SEER.
So, although Heat Pumps are theoretically good in my area, I can't see paying the same amount as a high-efficiency AC-furnace system (19 SEER) to get a less efficient dual-fuel Heat Pump system (15.5 SEER). Also, I don't know that energy cost savings of the high-efficiency dual-fuel Heat Pump system (18.7 SEER) will ever overcome the $ higher price.
Am I missing something in these equations? Because, if not, it looks to me like the AC-furnace system would be our best choice. Did I reason that right?