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Thread: Collapse coming...not recovery
03-17-2012, 03:34 PM #14German 'wise men' trim 2012 growth forecast
The so-called "Five Wise Men", who advise the government on economic matters, said in a statement they expect Europe's biggest economy to expand by just 0.8 percent this year after 3.0 percent in 2011.
That represented a fractional downward revision from their last forecast released in October, when the experts had been pencilling in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2012 of 0.9 percent.Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference. Mark Twain
03-17-2012, 04:18 PM #15
I don't know what it is here,everyone digs deep to the links with the least credibility.Not unlike me,who finds a doctor that says I don't need to lose weight! This guy is nothing but an EX news reporter!
03-17-2012, 07:54 PM #16
Deutsche Bank Group
Focus Germany: Recession risk has receded 2012 GDP forecast now 0.5%
The ifo business climate index has now risen for the fourth time in a row and in February the PMI also remained just above the 50 threshold at 50.2 despite declining. Nevertheless, the improvement in the confidence indicators was not reflected to the same degree in monthly hard data, such as orders or retail sales. Only industrial production provided a positive surprise in January, with favourable weather having also played a part. It is unlikely that the latest increase in oil prices to more than USD 125 per barrel (Brent) will correct rapidly, which will be an additional burden on the global economy. The model simulations described show that a further increase to USD 135 (annual average) would reduce German growth by about 1/4 of a percentage point. Overall, economic growth in H1 is likely to remain very modest. However, the risk of GDP declining again in Q1 after contracting 0.2% in the closing quarter of last year looks to have receded further. Even with a quarterly rate of only 0.2% in Q2 this means an annualised average increase in GDP of about 1/2%. Average collective wages will accelerate slightly in 2012, but the increase should not be significantly above 3%.
Not that I put too much stock in projections, just posted the previous link to question the 20% decrease quoted.Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference. Mark Twain