Reply to Thread

Post a reply to the thread: A prediction

Your Message

 
 

You may choose an icon for your message from this list

Register Now

Please enter the name by which you would like to log-in and be known on this site.

Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.

Please enter a valid email address for yourself.

Log-in

Additional Options

  • Will turn www.example.com into [URL]http://www.example.com[/URL].

Topic Review (Newest First)

  • 10-12-2009, 12:09 PM
    73Stingray
    Quote Originally Posted by neophytes serendipity View Post
    Not necessarily.

    The number of people that want warm or cold air/water at the lowest price still far outnumber the number of people that want it "done right".

    Convincing someone that their 120,000 btu furnace connected to 20x8 ductwork sucking through a 16 x 25 filter is done wrong is difficult when it appears to "work"... or, that you really do need a chimney liner in that exterior masonry chimney without any clay tiles after low bid guy did the work 10 years ago.
    AGREED!!!! Especially with the economy the way it is now.....
    Here is what I am finding in my area....The Big Guys (the high publicity, high overhead, well known and reputable places) are still doing OK, but they seem to be in a sort of no growth/stale, status quo type of situation...

    Next there are the guys that have been at it for a while, maybe 5 years or more, and have steady customers and are just managing to stay afloat, but have had to cut back to maybe a 2 man crew ...ie owner and helper to stay afloat... but are finding it harder than normal to stay busy...

    Finally there are the flying solo hacks that are cutting into everyone a little bit, they are the guys who have either been cut from the larger operations or were the low man on the pole at a smaller operations and figure they are going to make it on their own...I think a lot of these guys are installers who thought that they could do service so they are going to give it a shot...These are the bubba's with duct tape that are only working because of the desperate people who can't afford something better right now. The people out their hiring Bubba are doing it because they don't even have a job themselves and can't afford it..
  • 10-11-2009, 01:41 PM
    neophytes serendipity
    Quote Originally Posted by HVAC Student View Post
    That's a matter of salesmanship. If you fail to sell the customer something he needs that's your fault.* If this happens you should offer to speak with him again after a mutually agreed amount of time when you insist his small problem will become a big problem. If you can prove your case at that time you may be able to make a larger sale later.

    * I don't claim to be a great salesman myself; this has happened to me many times.
    Yup
  • 10-11-2009, 01:19 PM
    nayendhe
    Originally posted by neophytes serendipity
    The number of people that want warm or cold air/water at the lowest price still far outnumber the number of people that want it "done right".
    That's a matter of salesmanship. If you fail to sell the customer something he needs that's your fault.* If this happens you should offer to speak with him again after a mutually agreed amount of time when you insist his small problem will become a big problem. If you can prove your case at that time you may be able to make a larger sale later.

    * I don't claim to be a great salesman myself; this has happened to me many times.
  • 10-11-2009, 08:17 AM
    neophytes serendipity
    Quote Originally Posted by HVAC Student View Post
    Dissatisfied customers will do all the necessary weeding.

    When a customer pays an independent technician $25 per hour under the table to avoid paying an $85 per hour shop rate to a licensed, bonded and insured company it's a calculated risk. If that risk blows up in the customer's face he'll look for a reputable company to pick up the pieces.
    Not necessarily.

    The number of people that want warm or cold air/water at the lowest price still far outnumber the number of people that want it "done right".

    Convincing someone that their 120,000 btu furnace connected to 20x8 ductwork sucking through a 16 x 25 filter is done wrong is difficult when it appears to "work"... or, that you really do need a chimney liner in that exterior masonry chimney without any clay tiles after low bid guy did the work 10 years ago.
  • 10-11-2009, 03:12 AM
    nayendhe
    Originally posted by r404a
    When the economy really turns, our industry will really be hurting for new blood.
    I believe you're right, but I don't think the economy will recover within the next few years.

    Originally posted by Special Ed
    What I've noticed is that the trades in general aren't very popular with the young people.
    I agree, but when people can no longer borrow money to attend college there will be a profound sea change in the composition of our labor pool; people (young or otherwise) will flock to professions for which they can afford proper training. I however disagree that the trade is hurting for people at this time. There appear to be plenty of unemployed techs on this forum more experienced than I who can't get work.

    Originally posted by kls-ccc
    Until we can weed out the slackers and have a real profession where we can demand what we are worth we won't inspire truly great people into this field.
    Dissatisfied customers will do all the necessary weeding.

    Originally posted by kls-ccc
    I don't know that we have a shortage of techs, but have to many dealers, ie one man shops etc willing to go out and do it cheaper.
    When a customer pays an independent technician $25 per hour under the table to avoid paying an $85 per hour shop rate to a licensed, bonded and insured company it's a calculated risk. If that risk blows up in the customer's face he'll look for a reputable company to pick up the pieces.

    Originally posted by timebuilder
    Perhaps a better approach is to form a regional/county professional association and pony up money for advertising that says, "make sure your air conditioning contractor is a member of blah-blah, ensuring quality and value for your air conditioning needs."
    That's definitely better. Government tends to do things half as well for twice as much money.
  • 10-10-2009, 05:49 PM
    timebuilder
    That's an excellent question.

    Primarily, this would be accomplished by erecting barriers to practice, such as licensing and regulation. That's a two-edeged sword, because it gets government into the profession, and creates a situation where commissions are established that begin to dictate so many requirements that you can find yourself being limited in what YOU can do.

    For example:

    In Pennsylvania, we had a wild west environment for many years in real estate. When it came time to suggest regulations, it was the large brokerages that did so. They essentially prevented newcomers from opening their own brokerages without going through many hoops. Then there is the consumer requirements flowing down from HUD. Some of it is good, but there is no requirement to use a professional at all. This created room for web developers to sell real estate advice without being in the practice of real estate, competing with agents on a cost basis that is impossible. "Bubba" on steroids.

    Perhaps a better approach is to form a regional/county professional association and pony up money for advertising that says, "make sure your air conditioning contractor is a member of blah-blah, ensuring quality and value for your air conditioning needs."
  • 10-10-2009, 05:02 PM
    BNME8EZ
    I don't know that we have a shortage of techs, but have to many dealers, ie one man shops etc willing to go out and do it cheaper. This lowers the expectationin the consumers mind since we are all alike anyway. In my state we don't have to be licenced to do HVAC work, although some towns require it. I took a test for one of these towns. It was all about code and safety, which is important but had little if anything to do with skill or trade knowledge. All reference to skill was vague at best. While a lot of people can do this kind of work the wall of shame shows that not near as many can do it right. Until we can weed out the slackers and have a real profession where we can demand what we are worth we won't inspire truly great people into this field. I realize that I don't have the same formal education as a doctor although with all the seminars, training schools, etc it may rival that of a doctor, but the work that I do has in many ways a greater effect on peoples health than what a doctors does, yet we don't get the pay. Why, because Bubba will through a too box it the back of his truck and use duct tape to hold a part in place and get it to run for 50% less than what I would charge to do it right. Most of you know exactly what I'm talking about. So how do we weed out the Bubbas?
  • 10-10-2009, 04:25 PM
    73Stingray
    Quote Originally Posted by Dowadudda View Post
    this trade requires brains and a hard ball busting work ethic. Good luck finding that these days. This trade is so wide open and so full of opportunity but you got to go get it. And way too few people are smart enough with the hard work ethic to even get past the first year. A lot of guys wash out of this. Which is the way it is suppose to be.
    Well said..Thank you!! I was wondering what that pain in my loins was...lol
  • 10-09-2009, 09:52 AM
    kitchenfixer

    Virgin?

    Quote Originally Posted by fallguy View Post
    I have been trying to be optimisic about getting in to this field. I have got in to a couple of apprentice pools but that is just a long list. I am going to try to wait it out. My concern is that I am 36 now what if it takes 4 yrs before things get better than I'll be 40. I dont think to many companies will hire a 40yr old virgin to the field. Will they? Time is not on my side
    I finished tech school here in Phoenix @ age 39. My background in other fields (with a lot of trades knowledge) proved my case to be hired almost immediately. Been at it 4 years now. Keep you chin up and sell your ability and work ethic (assuming you have one). Not saying that I didn't struggle...took several months to find the RIGHT job (everyone wants to pay $0), but again, sell yourself! If you're not a virgin to hard work, you'll have no problem. Kevin.
  • 10-04-2009, 04:04 PM
    Dowadudda
    Quote Originally Posted by crackertech View Post
    If that was true we would not be doing markets.
    True. LOL.

    Some guys on this website who are owners are saying they are busy. Why is that? It's because they are hustling and working hard to adapt to a tough situation. You got to be in it to win it so to speak.

    Attitude is everything. Aptitude is also important. I believe this trade is so strong, even now in these times.

    The union argument, I see no merit in even trying to crack that whole nut. You just do what you can do.

    I don;t know how to really say it. You got to just go do it.
  • 10-04-2009, 02:52 PM
    crackertech
    Quote Originally Posted by Dowadudda View Post
    this trade requires brains and a hard ball busting work ethic. Good luck finding that these days. This trade is so wide open and so full of opportunity but you got to go get it. And way too few people are smart enough with the hard work ethic to even get past the first year. A lot of guys wash out of this. Which is the way it is suppose to be.
    If that was true we would not be doing markets.
  • 10-04-2009, 02:48 PM
    crackertech
    Quote Originally Posted by neophytes serendipity View Post
    There was a time when I believed that a strong work ethic and continuing education would keep one employed.

    Kind of like a "cream rises to the top" comparison.

    Hell, even the powers that be within the union I am a member of would preach the same thing at the meetings. They would say take classes... get certified... work hard.... and you will stay working.

    I took classes- lots of them. The instructors received pay for teaching me... the union received money from the International Training fund. They got theirs.

    I held several certifications for things like air balancing and welding. Never once a job offer when I was/am out of work.

    Guys that show up with alcohol on their breath... come in late... first to break/lunch/parking lot... search for the most time consuming way to do something... spend an hour a day on "smoke break"... not a single class... are still working. The buddy system.

    What a load.

    Must be a union thing.
    Than mabey it's time to go non union.And yes a strong work ethic will pay off.
  • 10-04-2009, 11:48 AM
    r404a
    Quote Originally Posted by neophytes serendipity View Post
    There was a time when I believed that a strong work ethic and continuing education would keep one employed.

    Kind of like a "cream rises to the top" comparison.

    Hell, even the powers that be within the union I am a member of would preach the same thing at the meetings. They would say take classes... get certified... work hard.... and you will stay working.

    I took classes- lots of them. The instructors received pay for teaching me... the union received money from the International Training fund. They got theirs.

    I held several certifications for things like air balancing and welding. Never once a job offer when I was/am out of work.

    Guys that show up with alcohol on their breath... come in late... first to break/lunch/parking lot... search for the most time consuming way to do something... spend an hour a day on "smoke break"... not a single class... are still working. The buddy system.

    What a load.

    Must be a union thing.
    thi must be frustrating to you. hopefully things will change for you soon.


    r404a
  • 10-04-2009, 10:16 AM
    neophytes serendipity
    Quote Originally Posted by t80tank View Post
    Thats more or less what I was saying in my earlier post. It seems to me as if the hvac, plumbing, and electrical fields are going to need new people. I've been discouraged a lot lately because no matter where I looke (states) there are no entry level positions available, even before this economic mess occured. I've only seen one entry level position, and it was in California. I live in Ohio currently, but am hoping to move to Kansas or Oklahoma next year. Hopefully find something out there.
    Almost every week, there is some type of HVAC help wanted ad put up on Craigslist in the Chicago area.

    I do not know if any of the companies posting the ads are actually hiring, or if they are just collecting resumes... or if the ads are placed by companies instead of some prankster.

    Presumably, there are positions available somewhere.
  • 10-04-2009, 10:08 AM
    t80tank
    Quote Originally Posted by Special Ed View Post
    What I've noticed is that the trades in general aren't very popular with the young people. Think about it: How many times do you hear people saying they want to be an HVAC tech or an electrician or a plumber? Hardly ever. In fact, I've seen plumbers & electricians portrayed in movies & TV but NEVER an HVAC tech! When I ask young people what they're going to school for it's almost always having to do with the health care field, hardly ever (if ever) for any of the trades. Even law school & business admin. is more popular. No, my friends, our trade is hurting for new recruits & it always will.... Like someone already alluded to: You have to have brains & an incredible work ethic - but you also have to be tough & willing to work in some of the most extreme work environments. And I think we're under-paid....
    Thats more or less what I was saying in my earlier post. It seems to me as if the hvac, plumbing, and electrical fields are going to need new people. I've been discouraged a lot lately because no matter where I looke (states) there are no entry level positions available, even before this economic mess occured. I've only seen one entry level position, and it was in California. I live in Ohio currently, but am hoping to move to Kansas or Oklahoma next year. Hopefully find something out there.
  • 10-04-2009, 09:16 AM
    Special Ed
    What I've noticed is that the trades in general aren't very popular with the young people. Think about it: How many times do you hear people saying they want to be an HVAC tech or an electrician or a plumber? Hardly ever. In fact, I've seen plumbers & electricians portrayed in movies & TV but NEVER an HVAC tech! When I ask young people what they're going to school for it's almost always having to do with the health care field, hardly ever (if ever) for any of the trades. Even law school & business admin. is more popular. No, my friends, our trade is hurting for new recruits & it always will.... Like someone already alluded to: You have to have brains & an incredible work ethic - but you also have to be tough & willing to work in some of the most extreme work environments. And I think we're under-paid....
  • 10-04-2009, 08:06 AM
    neophytes serendipity
    Quote Originally Posted by Dowadudda View Post
    this trade requires brains and a hard ball busting work ethic. Good luck finding that these days. This trade is so wide open and so full of opportunity but you got to go get it. And way too few people are smart enough with the hard work ethic to even get past the first year. A lot of guys wash out of this. Which is the way it is suppose to be.
    There was a time when I believed that a strong work ethic and continuing education would keep one employed.

    Kind of like a "cream rises to the top" comparison.

    Hell, even the powers that be within the union I am a member of would preach the same thing at the meetings. They would say take classes... get certified... work hard.... and you will stay working.

    I took classes- lots of them. The instructors received pay for teaching me... the union received money from the International Training fund. They got theirs.

    I held several certifications for things like air balancing and welding. Never once a job offer when I was/am out of work.

    Guys that show up with alcohol on their breath... come in late... first to break/lunch/parking lot... search for the most time consuming way to do something... spend an hour a day on "smoke break"... not a single class... are still working. The buddy system.

    What a load.

    Must be a union thing.
  • 10-04-2009, 07:40 AM
    neophytes serendipity
    Quote Originally Posted by r404a View Post
    Based on the current economic situation, I have a prediction. We all know that a lot of people have been displaced from factory/manufacturing jobs, even tech jobs, and have enrolled in HVAC related/ building trades related schooling. It woud seem that this would be a windfall for the HVAC industry, as we always here of the lack of trained/quality/motivated persons in the HVAC work force.
    What has happened, in reality, is that HVAC companies/industry has suffered along with the general populace. Also, the owners and operators have been able to "pick and choose" with much more authority since the job market went in the tank. This inevitably has discouraged new people from entering the HVAC field.
    Look at this board. I sincerly hope these people hold out, can hold out, or find really good and rewarding careers. The human side of any of us who read of the plight of these people trying to get by cannot help but be touched, at least somehow. So, on to my prediction.
    The available pool of people who are trying to get in the door in HVAC will make a decision to keep trying, or at the first turn of the economy go back to their old careers or take other careers. In all likelyhood, with some of the stress related to what goes on in trying to get on with a shop or union etc. they may turn their backs on HVAC.
    When the economy really turns, our industry will really be hurting for new blood. We will be worse off than we are now.

    Keep your heads up, all of you.


    r404a
    There used to be all kinds of radio ads for HVAC schools promising big bucks after a short 6 month program. Those ads are gone... been gone for a while. Schools also used to hawk automotive mechanic training with the lure of easy money.

    Automotive schooling ads were heard when sites like Craigslist were full of mechanics tools and toolboxes... those desperate for sale ads are still running.

    Not much money to be had for a bucket of HVAC hand tools, gauges or recovery equipment. Used machinery dealers offer pennies a pound, scrap value for the shop equipment and have warehouses full of equipment offered for 50% to 75% of new for worn out junk.

    The current ads are for IT training and Windows Certification programs. Same spiel... short schooling timeframe... easy loan programs.

    I don't see how anyone but the school is making money at this.
  • 10-03-2009, 11:12 AM
    timebuilder
    Quote Originally Posted by Dowadudda View Post
    this trade requires brains and a hard ball busting work ethic. Good luck finding that these days. This trade is so wide open and so full of opportunity but you got to go get it. And way too few people are smart enough with the hard work ethic to even get past the first year. A lot of guys wash out of this. Which is the way it is suppose to be.
    Absolutely.

    Those who apply themselves will rise to the top and flourish. I see darned few young guys that have the interest in mechanical work AND the focus to develop the values of work and responsibility that used to be commonplace in the country of our "greatest generation."
  • 09-28-2009, 06:58 PM
    Dowadudda
    this trade requires brains and a hard ball busting work ethic. Good luck finding that these days. This trade is so wide open and so full of opportunity but you got to go get it. And way too few people are smart enough with the hard work ethic to even get past the first year. A lot of guys wash out of this. Which is the way it is suppose to be.
This thread has more than 20 replies. Click here to review the whole thread.

Posting Permissions

  • You may post new threads
  • You may post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •