MEMO TO PRESIDENT ELECT OBAMA

[matt michel]

MEMO TO PRESIDENT ELECT OBAMA

To: Office of the President Elect
Fr: Matt Michel
Re: Hope

Hey Barack! I hope you don’t mind if I call you Barack. I want to talk about hope.

Here’s the deal Barack. Guys like me out here in flyover country are cheering on small business. We’re trying to set a positive tone. We’re trying to get the economy rolling. We’re trying to convince plumbers and other contractors to be cheerleaders in their companies and communities. I understand you’ve had experience with a plumber or two, so you know these guys can be a tough audience.

Well guess what? You’re not helping. You’re making it harder.

What gives? “Hope” was the major theme of your campaign. You did a great job selling it. You presented yourself as a positive, upbeat guy. You were the bright, optimistic future in contrast to McCain who was, well, McCain. It worked. A majority of the voters bought your message and bought you.

So what happened?

Man, you’ve become a bigger grouch than Bob Dole. You’re grumpier than Bill Parcells in a losing season. People voted for hope and you’re serving heaping helpings of despair. Last week you warned everyone about the potential for “double digit unemployment.” This week you said the economy was “bad and getting worse.” Gee, that’s hopeful. Who needs Norman Vincent Peale when you’re giving press conference like that?

And just where are you getting this? Double digit unemployment? Not one of the 53 leading business economists surveyed by the “Wall Street Journal” is projecting 10% unemployment. Not one! And yet you said, “Economists from across the political spectrum agree…”

Look, I know you’re just spinning to sell your trillion dollar (more or less) government “stimulus” package. But come on, how hard do you have to sell? Your party dominates the House and Senate. You’re the party’s superstar. You neutralized Hillary when you named her Secretary of State. You can do anything you want.

Honestly, you don’t have to convince people that it’s “bad and getting worse” to get Congress to spend a pile of money. Congress loves to spend money.

Out here in flyover country, we need you to convince people that it may be tough, but so what? We’re resilient. Tell us we’re Americans. Tell us we’ve weathered worse economies than this one and there’s already signs of recovery. Tell us how home prices are leveling off and should start slowly climbing in the next couple of months. Tell us that lots of homeowners are taking advantage of the lowest interest rates we’ve seen in a generation to refinance, freeing up cash to pay bills, pay tuition, start businesses, invest, and spend. Remind us that energy prices are down. Things are already looking a lot better than they did in September!

Then, if you feel the need, suggest that your “stimulus” package is exactly what’s needed to really turn the corner and get the economy moving again. Just don’t stop there. Tell us you’re doing your part and that now it’s time for us to do ours. Challenge us to innovate. Challenge us to invest in new ideas and new businesses. Challenge us to get moving.

I bet if you stop talking down the economy and get back to a message of hope, the media will too. The media love you. Remember when you gave Chris Matthews that tingly feeling? The media will take its lead from you. So why don’t you call a few of your buds over at the Post and Times and ask them to find something good to report? I bet they will if you ask.

You and you alone have the capacity to set an upbeat tone for the entire nation. That’s an enormous responsibility. It’s the most important thing you can do for America at the present. It’s far more important than spending another trillion (more or less). After all, Bush just tried that and we saw how well it worked. By the way, exactly what did happen to that $700 billion? I’ve been looking, but I can seem to find any of it. I’d sure like some.

Barack, I doubt you’re going to listen to me. I know, you’ve probably got the Rahmster telling you that you’re doing what’s necessary to get all of the various congress critters into line. Just remember, sourpusses tend to be one term presidents.

I hope you start hoping again, but if you don’t, if you’re going to stay negative, the people out here in flyover country are going to ignore you. We’re going to focus on things we can impact. We’re going to find good news. We’re going to ignore the nattering nabobs of negativism and bust our tails making good news for ourselves, our families, our employees, and our customers. You can make it easier for us, but if you don’t, we can do it without you.

While we would rather you exuded the optimism of Reagan and Clinton than the malaise of Carter (and please, don’t wear a sweater and tell us to turn down our thermostats), we’re not going to let it affect us. We’re going to make our own hope.

We’re small business. We create more jobs in a day than General Motors shreds in a year. We’d love a bailout, but will do just fine without one. Acting in concert, we can single handedly turn this economy around. If you don’t want to take on the role of economic symphonic conductor, we’ll play our own tune. It may not sound as sweet, but it will work. It will work because we will. If we work, America works. If America works, the world works.

And Barack, let me know if you need any more advice. My rates are quite reasonable by bailout standards. I’m happy to help.

[sline-dawg]

I hope this gets thru to him......Excellent letter sir.....:)

[spymoocow]

I agree. Great letter. I hope its gets thru too.

[mrs reb77]

Print it up and put it in the mail....NOW! :D

Seriously, needs to go to Washington.

[matt michel]

Feel free to copy and post it wherever you want. The three most important paragraphs are...

I hope you start hoping again, but if you don’t, if you’re going to stay negative, the people out here in flyover country are going to ignore you. We’re going to focus on things we can impact. We’re going to find good news. We’re going to ignore the nattering nabobs of negativism and bust our tails making good news for ourselves, our families, our employees, and our customers. You can make it easier for us, but if you don’t, we can do it without you.

While we would rather you exuded the optimism of Reagan and Clinton than the malaise of Carter (and please, don’t wear a sweater and tell us to turn down our thermostats), we’re not going to let it affect us. We’re going to make our own hope.

We’re small business. We create more jobs in a day than General Motors shreds in a year. We’d love a bailout, but will do just fine without one. Acting in concert, we can single handedly turn this economy around. If you don’t want to take on the role of economic symphonic conductor, we’ll play our own tune. It may not sound as sweet, but it will work. It will work because we will. If we work, America works. If America works, the world works.

[the editor]

Just one word to describe this ... FANTASTIC.

[k-fridge]

Good post Matt!

I posted to this awhile back on another site I play on. My message was that I didn't vote for Obama, but he won and he needs to pick this country up out of the mess it's in. Ronald Reagan did it, he took to the mic and inspired the people of this country with hope. Obama has a similar ability as Reagan did to convey a positive message, I just hope he'll use it as such.

[matt michel]

Obama has a similar ability as Reagan did to convey a positive message, I just hope he'll use it as such.

If he doesn't, it's important that all of us pick up those around us and stay upbeat. Don't believe the pessimism. Given current mortgage rates and the refinancing boom that's started, I think we might already be turning the corner. If Obama doesn't know this, his advisers should.

Unfortunately, based on yesterday's speech I would say that Obama is using the "precautionary principle" to push through his agenda. The "precautionary principle" involves painting a dismal picture of the future that "might" or "could" occur unless something drastic is done "now" as a precaution. Jim Hansen at NASA and Gore frequently use the precautionary principle to push their agendas.

I doubt Obama's going to sound very cheery until he gets his spending program through. Hopefully, he'll become more upbeat once the legislation has passed.

[Gib's Son]

Good letter. I do, however have a comment, and I only say this just in case you really are going to mail it and want to try and work this into your already fine letter.

His message started out as one of "Hope". It ended as one of "Change". Hmmm.

[forged alloy]

It's still pre-Obama - It is vital for him to cast everything in as negative a light as possible right now. Then he has nowhere to go but up.

Do you think his army of advisors just packed up and left after the election? The orchestra is still playing. He is being made into a Kennedy in Camelot. More celeb then President.

Great letter Matt!

[bootlen]

Hey, Matt. Were you born in the USA. 'Cuz if you were, would you run for POTUS in 2012? We desperately need your insight in DC.

[matt michel]

You're absolutely correct about the campaign mode continuing. I hope he shifts. I find the following interesting...


It's going to be cynicism that we're fighting against. It's the cynicism that's born from decades of disappointment, amplified by talk radio and 24-hour news cycle, reinforced by the relentless pounding of negative ads that have become the staple of modern politics...

...There are those who don't believe in talking about hope. They say, well, we want specifics, we want details, we want white papers, we want plans. We've had a lot of plans, Democrats. What we've had is a shortage of hope.'

-Barack Obama, 2.4.2007 (source (http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/obamacommentary/241770,CST-NWS-sweet04.stng))

Where is that guy?


We start 2009 in the midst of a crisis unlike any we have seen in our lifetime, a crisis that has only deepened over the last few weeks. Nearly 2 million jobs have been now lost. And on Friday, we're likely to learn that we lost more jobs last year than at any time since World War II. Just in the past year, another 2.8 million Americans who want and need full-time work have had to settle for part-time jobs.

Manufacturing has hit a 28-year low. Many businesses cannot borrow or make payroll. Many families cannot pay their bills or their mortgage. Many workers are watching their life savings disappear. And many, many Americans are both anxious and uncertain of what the future will hold.

Now, I don't believe it's too late to change course, but it will be if we don't take dramatic action as soon as possible. If nothing is done, this recession could linger for years.

The unemployment rate could reach double digits. Our economy could fall $1 trillion short of its full capacity, which translates into more than $12,000 in lost income for a family of four.

We could lose a generation of potential and promise as more young Americans are forced to forego dreams of college or the chance to train for the jobs of the future. And our nation could lose the competitive edge that has served as a foundation for our strength and our standing in the world.

In short, a bad situation could become dramatically worse.

-Barack Obama, 1.8.2009 (source (http://ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=316308294466177))

Who is this guy? He's not the guy who campaigned on a message of hope?

I know he's just using the precautionary principle to sell his program, but good grief. He's making Woody Allen seem like a positively cheerful fellow.

Again, where's the hope?

It's challenging, but it's not as bad as Obama is portraying things. The unemployment pattern isn't great, but it's not as bad as the recessions in 81/82 and 73/75...

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/12/altig_emp_bad.jpg

It far from the harshest in the post war era...

http://www.publicradio.org/columns/marketplace/farrell/1employment_length_small.jpg

It's already turning. Last week's new unemployment claims were 467,000. This is down 5% from the previous week at 492,000 and well under the average of 540,000 that analysts projected in a Reuters poll. Why were the analysts off? Do you think it might have something to do with the president elect running around the country preaching double digit unemployment?

Right now, total unemployment numbers are around 7.2% and may get worse. This is bad, but it's far from double-digits. By comparison, if Sarkozy can ever get the French unemployment down to 7% in a boom time, they'll build a monument to honor him.

The comparisons to the 1930s aren't beneficial either. In 1931, unemployment hit 16%. In 1933, it hit 25%. And today, there's a safety net that didn't exist during the depression.

The only way we could head into a depression is if we talk ourselves into it or start emulating the failed economic policies of the Great Depression. And I'm not sure we could even talk ourselves into it. Too many Americans ignore the media these days (it's why the media's in so much trouble) and too many Americans are positive people. We're going to be fine.

Again, the good news is the housing slide has just about ended and most economists think it will end within six months. Frankly, we needed the housing bubble to burst. It was insupportable and making homeownership beyond hope for many in high priced markets. Now, there's hope.

The mortgage rates are the best in a generation. It's resulting in a refinancing boom.

Gas is cheap. I paid $1.309/gallon last weekend.

Then, there's this story from my old company, Decision Analyst...


Decision Analyst U.S. Economic Index for December Holds Steady, Signaling Economic Recovery in 2009]

ARLINGTON, TX - Decision Analyst's U.S. Economic Index remained essentially flat during the month of December, showing a one point decline to 87. The fact that the U.S. Economic Index has remained relatively stable for the past nine months signals that the U.S. economy is likely to start recovering during the second half of 2009. The Economic Index tends to be a leading indicator, usually foreshadowing Gross Domestic Product by 12 to 18 months. It is quite remarkable, in the face of daunting economic news and dire economic warnings, that the U.S. Economic Index has remained stable for the last nine months of 2008, as shown in the graph.

http://media.marketwire.com/attachments/200901/MOD-433299_imageDecisionAnalyst.jpg

"While the media and new services hype the recession and all of the negative economic news, the average man on the street in the U.S. is seeing some positive signs: declining prices of homes, gasoline, and a wide array of retail goods; and declining interest rates. The Economic Index is indicating that the U.S. economy will 'bottom out' during the middle of 2009, if present trends remain in effect," said Jerry W. Thomas, president/CEO of Decision Analyst, a marketing research and consulting firm. "The published economic data are very confusing and difficult to read right now, because of deflationary trends. Falling prices make the reported economic numbers look worse than they actually are. So, we are becoming increasingly optimistic that the U.S. recession will come to an end during the second or third quarters of 2009," said Thomas. "The Great Financial Panic of 2008, however, continues to inject uncertainty into any forecast of future economic activity, because continuing credit contraction may short-circuit the normal economic recovery process."

More (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28542346/)

Larry Kudlow had more positive news...


Bottoming Signs

Here and there are some small signs that the economy is at least bottoming — a crucial stepping stone to meaningful recovery.

For example, the ISM non-manufacturing services report released today for December came in at 40.6 on the composite index, compared to 37.3 in November. New orders, employment, backlogs, and exports all ticked higher than the previous month. So did the overall-business-activity index. It’s still a recession reading, but a small increase is better than a decline.

The November factory-orders report showed non-defense capex rising at a 3.9 percent annual pace, the first increase in four months and the best gain in 10 months. Computer orders surged 12.5 percent.

Pending home sales — which tracks home re-sales under contract, according to the National Association of Realtors — declined again overall. But out West pending sales continued to increase, and they are up 27 percent since the August 2007 bottom.

Commercial construction rose 0.7 percent annually in November, and is up 12.1 percent over the past three months.

And in the November personal-income report, real disposable income jumped 1 percent for the month and is up 7.1 percent at an annual rate over the past three months. Real consumer spending in that report rose 0.6 percent in November.

These income and spending gains were largely a function of plummeting inflation, where the PCE deflator has fallen 6.1 percent annually over the past three months. That, of course, is largely a function of collapsing oil and retail gas prices. The gasoline drop is probably worth $350 billion as a consumer-purchasing-power tax cut. This is a key recovery mustard seed. So is the outsized growth in the money supply as measured by M1 and M2, fueled by the gigantic increase in the monetary base as the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet.

Additionally, the credit freeze continues to thaw. The three-month LIBOR rate is all the way back to 1.4 percent. And corporate bond rates continue to decline, a signal that private capital markets are starting to function again. The 30-year mortgage rate is holding around 5.3 percent.

Source (http://kudlowsmoneypolitics.blogspot.com/2009/01/bottoming-signs.html) - It's worth reading the whole article

I'm no Pollyanna, but dang it, I'm starting to get optimistic as long as I avoid the major media and president-elect. The sun's starting to shine and the parade's about to leave the station. If the president elect wants to lead the parade, he needs to quit talking about rain clouds and get moving!

[bootlen]

Who the hell ARE you? That's good stuff.

[matt michel]

I'm just a Texas Aggie and Dallas Cowboys fan with bonus time this year that would normally have been spent watching my favorite teams in bowl games and the playoffs.

[k-fridge]

Who the hell ARE you? That's good stuff.

Matt is our resident marketing guru.

http://hvac-talk.com/vbb/forumdisplay.php?f=53

[bootlen]

I'm just a Texas Aggie and Dallas Cowboys fan with bonus time this year that would normally have been spent watching my favorite teams in bowl games and the playoffs.

Well, the Pokes fan thing is understandable. Been one myself since the days of Eddie Labaron.

And my daughter is a part Aggie...Tarleton State in Stephenville, an A&M campus.

At least run for a Congressional seat.

[matt michel]

At least run for a Congressional seat.

You flatter me, but I could never run for dog catcher. Here are 20 reasons why, in no particular order...

1. Anyone who wants political office enough to seek it is too ambitious to serve (we need to bring back the smoke filled room - just look at the choices we've had for president the last couple of dozen years)

2. I'm honest and would like to stay that way (speaks for itself).

3. While I may visit Disney from time to time, I wouldn't want to live there. Wait! We're talking about DC. Oh yeah. Same thing (Mickey Mouse. Goofy. Dumbo. The big Federal Fairy Godmother. A complete fantasy world).

4. I'm unelectable (I'm sure I have skeletons).

5. I'm too ADD (the job would absolutely bore me to tears).

6. I have a responsibility to my investors (seriously - people placed their faith and some of their wealth in me).

7. I'm leading a company that's trying to make a positive impact on the industry and we're not finished (it sounds arrogant, but I mean it).

8. My wife's doctors are in Dallas (she has Parkinson's and Hemiplegic Migraines - this is a big deal).

9. I like contractors, not congress critters (only a lawyer or lobbiest would disagree).

10. I don't have enough money to run (though I've got to admit, it intrigues me how so many impoverished people get elected to office and suddenly end up with a seven or eight figure net worth while holding down a job that pays less than $200K).

11. I'd have to give up my lucrative job ranting in Contracting Business every other month (not to mention disappointing my readers - both of them).

12. I have some common sense (I'd never fit in).

13. I'd find it impossible to attend a talking head show without slugging the host (I guess I wouldn't to slug Brit Hume, but it'd be hard not to coldcock Olberman).

14. I'm not politically correct (for example, I think Ann Coulter's kinda hot - darn, did it again).

15. I feel called to make a positive contribution to the world (it would be hard to make up the deficit generated from time in Congress).

16. I'm accustomed to generating a profit (this kind of thinking is foreign to DC).

17. I couldn't compete in the State Fair of Texas salsa competition (I'm two for two).

18. I'm not photogenic (I have a radio face).

19. I'm good friends with Mike Weil (what can I say?).

20. Congress critters wear ties (I wear Wranglers).

[mrs reb77]

Ok, if you won't run for office, at least hang around ARP. We need a little legitimization if you will. And, I think you'd do nicely!
:p

[bootlen]

You flatter me, but I could never run for dog catcher. Here are 20 reasons why, in no particular order...

1. Anyone who wants political office enough to seek it is too ambitious to serve (we need to bring back the smoke filled room - just look at the choices we've had for president the last couple of dozen years)

2. I'm honest and would like to stay that way (speaks for itself).

3. While I may visit Disney from time to time, I wouldn't want to live there. Wait! We're talking about DC. Oh yeah. Same thing (Mickey Mouse. Goofy. Dumbo. The big Federal Fairy Godmother. A complete fantasy world).

4. I'm unelectable (I'm sure I have skeletons).

5. I'm too ADD (the job would absolutely bore me to tears).

6. I have a responsibility to my investors (seriously - people placed their faith and some of their wealth in me).

7. I'm leading a company that's trying to make a positive impact on the industry and we're not finished (it sounds arrogant, but I mean it).

8. My wife's doctors are in Dallas (she has Parkinson's and Hemiplegic Migraines - this is a big deal).

9. I like contractors, not congress critters (only a lawyer or lobbiest would disagree).

10. I don't have enough money to run (though I've got to admit, it intrigues me how so many impoverished people get elected to office and suddenly end up with a seven or eight figure net worth while holding down a job that pays less than $200K).

11. I'd have to give up my lucrative job ranting in Contracting Business every other month (not to mention disappointing my readers - both of them).

12. I have some common sense (I'd never fit in).

13. I'd find it impossible to attend a talking head show without slugging the host (I guess I wouldn't to slug Brit Hume, but it'd be hard not to coldcock Olberman).

14. I'm not politically correct (for example, I think Ann Coulter's kinda hot - darn, did it again).

15. I feel called to make a positive contribution to the world (it would be hard to make up the deficit generated from time in Congress).

16. I'm accustomed to generating a profit (this kind of thinking is foreign to DC).

17. I couldn't compete in the State Fair of Texas salsa competition (I'm two for two).

18. I'm not photogenic (I have a radio face).

19. I'm good friends with Mike Weil (what can I say?).

20. Congress critters wear ties (I wear Wranglers).

Matt, my cyber friend, those are the very reasons you should be in office...with the possible exception of your wife's health issues. (Family comes first...that should be the only thing that should keep ANY right thinking person out of politics.)

If it's okay, we'll pray for your wife. A very good friend here has a very mild case of something similar (I'm not sure what the exact name of her disease is but it is similar) so we know how devastating that can be.

So if you cannot serve politically, please post here more often. And with your permission, I'll C&P some of your posts and put them on the local liberal rag blog (with proper credit, of course). This kind of stuff really riles the local populace.

[bootlen]

Matt is our resident marketing guru.

http://hvac-talk.com/vbb/forumdisplay.php?f=53

Ah! (See how thick I am?)

Well, I bet he's a good'un.

[matt michel]

Ok, if you won't run for office, at least hang around ARP. We need a little legitimization if you will. And, I think you'd do nicely!
:p

What's ARP?

[glennac]

What's ARP?

Good question. The forum used to be America, Religion and Politics. But a year ago it got changed to ARP. It appears that about that time the Admin was considering removing this forum because of controversy of food fights breaking out on the forum. They decided to change to to a more PC title of ARP along with tightening up the rules for posting as to discourage fights breaking out on this great forum. Anyhow that is the story the way I and I think most of us see it. By the way enjoy your posts here. Thank you very much.

[matt michel]

I'll C&P some of your posts and put them on the local liberal rag blog (with proper credit, of course). This kind of stuff really riles the local populace.

Feel free. No need for attribution. Honestly, I try to keep politics out of this. I was focusing on attitudes, which transcend politics. Also, I was delivering economic news, which is business not politics.

It's not that I don't have poltical opinions. I do. I share them in non-business, political locales. I try to keep politics away from business because I'm guaranteed to turn away people who believe differently.

Think about how irritating it is to listen to a vapid, uninformed, self-righteous Hollywood entertainer lecture the world about politics. It irritates me to the point where I absolutely will not pay to see movies or purchase products by certain artists. There are other artists who I suspect hold opinions I find repugnant, but who keep them to themselves. I'm okay with them.

Let's use the NCAA as an example. Since the Mountain West went something like 6-2 against the Pac 10, I think the Pac 10 should give its BCS slot to the MWC. See, I've just irritated people from Arizona to Washington State to what purpose?

Now, when politics interferes with our industry, I'm known to sound off. This is why my column in CB is called "The Rant." You can read an example of the latest brouha in this thread (http://hvac-talk.com/vbb/showthread.php?t=183844).

You also commented on some of the marketing that I provide the industry. You can find some freebies in this thread, uh post (http://hvac-talk.com/vbb/showthread.php?t=183106).

[bootlen]

Everything is political....or at least everything is affected by politics. And when you try to introduce common sense, the lib mind goes postal. I just try to keep them busy trying to calm down so they have less time doing actual damage.:D

Anyway, thanks for the great posts and I'll pay more attention to http://hvac-talk.com/vbb/forumdisplay.php?f=53.

Praying for your wife,
Len

[k-fridge]

What's ARP?
Matt,

It appears that you orriginally posted this in your forum, and the mods moved it to ARP...which is the political forum. There is a redirect in your forum that brings you here.

In any case, welcome to ARP.

[mrs reb77]

You mean....he didn't post here willingly? I'm so disappointed!

Seriously, this is the place where discussions of this type should be and it does seem that the ARP name of the forum discourages rather than encourages it.

Post here more mr. Matt! And, I for one think we should all forward this memo to the powers that be in the new administration. :D

[Richard Kletty]

Hmmmmm well, Im running. For office that is.

Did you actually send this Matt? Seriously, did you?

[matt michel]

Hmmmmm well, Im running. For office that is.

Did you actually send this Matt? Seriously, did you?

I sent it out via Comanche. It was addressed to the president elect nominally. It was written to contractors who are letting the negativity affect them. They shouldn't.

There is zero chance that sending my memo to anyone in the transition team would have an impact. Cynic that I am, I really think that they know the economy is starting to turn. Thus, they are in panic mode to act fast so they can secure their trillion dollar goody bag. That's why you're hearing so many over-the-top proclamations about economic devastation.

It's the "precautionary principle." If we don't act now things may be horrific in the future. Thus, we must take radical steps as a precaution. Gore's suggestion that we need to essentially shut down our economy because the sea levels will rise 20 feet if we don't is an example of the precautionary principle.

[matt michel]

You mean....he didn't post here willingly? I'm so disappointed!

Seriously, this is the place where discussions of this type should be and it does seem that the ARP name of the forum discourages rather than encourages it.

Post here more mr. Matt! And, I for one think we should all forward this memo to the powers that be in the new administration. :D

I know the mods. As I suspected, they're clearly very sneaky individuals.